Your Guide to Player Prop Betting

Player props can range from straightforward statistical achievements, such as total rebounds or total assists, to more nuanced outcomes, like a player’s likelihood of hitting a double-double or making a game-winning play.

Why Are Player Props Popular?

The appeal of NBA player props player and other props bets in sports betting lies in their flexibility and personalization. By betting player props, a profitable sports bettor can focus on a single player or a specific matchup, researching data that aligns with their knowledge and interests. This style can also be popular with new bettors, who may prefer wagering on familiar star NBA players like Victor Wembanyama, and experienced bettors, who rely on detailed analytics to uncover value in less obvious scenarios.

Examples of Player Props

Here are examples to illustrate the variety of player props available:

• Total Points Scored: Predict NBA player prop bets, like whether Stephen Curry will score over/under 28.5 points in a game.
• Three-Pointers Made: Bet whether a sharpshooter like Klay Thompson will hit at least 5 three-pointers.
• Total Rebounds: Wager on whether Nikola Jokić will pull down more than 12.5 rebounds in a game.

How Are Player Props Structured?

Player props can take various forms, with the over/under format being the most widely recognized. However, sportsbooks offer a variety of prop structures, allowing bettors to engage with specific aspects of a player’s performance.

Common Structures for Player Props:

• Over/Under Format
  • In this structure, sportsbooks set a benchmark for a player's performance, and bettors wager on whether the player will exceed (over) or fall short (under) of that number.
  • Examples:
    • Over 7.5 assists for Luka Doncic: The bettor wins if Doncic records at least 8 assists.
    • Under 2.5 three-pointers for Giannis Antetokounmpo: The bettor wins if Giannis makes 2 or fewer three-pointers.
• Yes/No Bets
  • These props focus on whether a specific event will occur during the game.
  • Examples:
    • "Will Stephen Curry make at least 5 three-pointers? Yes/No."
    • "Will Nikola Jokić record a triple-double? Yes/No."
• Head-to-Head Props
  • This structure compares the performance of two players in the same game, with the bettor choosing who will perform better in a specific stat category.
  • Examples:
    • "Who will score more points: Kevin Durant or Jayson Tatum?"
    • "Who will grab more rebounds: Rudy Gobert or Bam Adebayo?"
• Milestone Props
  • These involve betting on whether a player will reach a specific statistical milestone.
  • Examples:
    • "Will LeBron James score 40+ points in the game?"
    • "Will Joel Embiid record 15+ rebounds?"
• Exact Outcome Bets
  • Bettors predict the precise outcome of a player's performance.
  • Examples:
    • "How many points will Damian Lillard score? (0-20, 21-30, 31+)."
    • "How many assists will Chris Paul have? (0-5, 6-10, 11+)."

Player prop betting is popular in the U.S. but requires a strategy to ensure informed bets. Here are some popular player props methods:

1. Study Advanced Player Statistics

Analyzing advanced stats is essential for making informed decisions when betting on player props. At the end of this section, you'll find some websites most recommended for thorough research. These statistics provide deeper insights into players' performance and their likelihood of achieving specific benchmarks during a game/match. Here’s how advanced metrics can help you:

Examples of Advanced Metrics:

• Usage Rate: This measures how often a player is involved in gameplay while active in the game.
  • Example: An NBA player like LeBron James with a high usage rate is more likely to record high total points scored or total assists.
• True Shooting Percentage: This assesses scoring efficiency by accounting for NBA field goals, free throws, and three-pointers. A player with a high true shooting percentage will more likely surpass scoring props.
• Potential Assists: A stat that tracks passes leading to shots, useful for identifying players likely to exceed assist-based proposition bets.
  • Example: An NHL player with a high assist rate on a team that runs a fast-paced offense is a strong candidate for assist-focused props.
• Defensive and Offensive Matchups: Analyzing specific matchups and the opposing team's defensive strengths can help identify players poised for success or struggle in a single game.

Why Advanced Stats Matter:

By using advanced stats, sports bettors can better understand player's statistics and how recent trends, injuries, or team strategy impact them. This type of analysis can give bettors an edge in identifying undervalued opportunities in player prop markets.

2. Analyze Specific Matchups

Every game is different, and specific matchups can significantly affect players' performance. Consider:

• Opposing Team’s Strengths: A strong defensive team might limit players' scoring.
• Player Matchups: If a weak defender guards a player, they may have a better chance of exceeding their prop totals.

3. Recent Trends in Player Performance

Examining how a player has performed in recent games provides clues about their current form. For instance:

• Is the player on a hot streak? Are they consistently scoring above 20 points?
• Has their playing time increased, giving them more opportunities to achieve prop totals?

Where to Research Player Stats by Sport

The table provides a side-by-side comparison of the betting odds for the 2024/25 NBA Rookie of the Year award from four prominent sportsbooks: DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, and ESPN Bet. The odds reflect the likelihood assigned to each player winning the award, helping fans and analysts assess market sentiment regarding the season's top rookies.

These odds were accurate as of January 15th, 2025. Be sure to follow the odds and compare at multiple sportsbooks to ensure you get the best odds on your wager.

Insights

Market Consensus on Favorites:
Alexandre Sarr is the favorite across all sportsbooks, with odds ranging from +140 to +150. 

Variability in Odds:
While there is consistency in the odds for top candidates like Sarr and Zach Edey, there are notable differences for players like Jaylen Wells, whose odds range from +500 to +650 depending on the sportsbook. 

Underdogs:
Stephon Castle and Yves Missi are priced at +700 and +800, respectively, with lower expectations than the top contenders. However, these odds may offer insights into their sleeper potential.

Even Distribution Across Platforms:
The odds presented are relatively aligned across sportsbooks.

Responsible Analysis:
These odds provide a snapshot of market predictions but are not guarantees of outcomes. Fans are encouraged to view these odds as one of many ways to understand the season's narratives and performances.

Engaging in player prop betting can enhance the excitement of sports wagering by focusing on individual player performances. However, it's essential to approach this form of betting with a clear understanding of its inherent challenges and common misconceptions.

Challenges in Player Prop Betting

• High Variability in Player Performance
  • Individual player performances are subject to variability due to factors such as injuries, in-game decisions, and coaching strategies. For instance, a recent report showed star Running Back Saquon Barkley chose to slide instead of scoring a touchdown to secure an Eagles' victory over the Green Bay Packers, impacting thousands of bettors who had wagered on his scoring prop.
• Limited Availability of Comprehensive Data
  • While major sports leagues like the NFL, NBA, and MLB provide extensive statistical resources, bettors often face challenges when dealing with less prominent leagues, teams, or sports. This scarcity of comprehensive data can significantly hinder the ability to make well-informed decisions when placing prop bets.

Challenges in Data Availability

• Smaller Leagues and Events: Lesser-known leagues or sports, such as minor league baseball or smaller soccer leagues, often lack the detailed statistics available for major sporting events. Without access to key metrics like player stats or advanced analytics, bettors are left with limited tools for evaluating player's performance.
• Emerging Markets: In growing sports like esports or niche international competitions, even sportsbooks may struggle to set accurate prop prices, increasing the risk of variability and uncertainty for sports bettors.
• Rapid Line Movements in Live Betting: In-game player prop bets can be risky and are subject to swift line movements, making it challenging for bettors to place wagers at optimal odds. The dynamic nature of live betting requires quick decision-making, which can lead to less informed bets.

Artificial intelligence (AI) tools and platforms have emerged as resources for analyzing player statistics and predicting player's performance in games. These tools can help fill the gaps where human analysis may fall short, especially for large datasets or sports with fragmented information. Here's how AI can help:

• Data Aggregation: AI algorithms can compile information from multiple sources, creating a more complete picture of a player's statistics across various leagues and seasons.
• Example: ChatGPT can pull data on a key player and combine it with relevant performance metrics from specific events.
• Pattern Recognition: By analyzing historical trends and recent trends, AI can detect patterns in player stats and predict outcomes for proposition bets like total points scored, total rebounds, or three-pointers made.

Limitations and Risks of Using AI in Player Prop Betting

While AI offers powerful analytical capabilities, it is not without flaws. Bettors must be cautious about relying entirely on AI-driven predictions. Here are the key concerns:

1. Data Quality and Source Reliability:
   1. AI tools are only as good as the data they process. If the input data is incomplete, biased, or outdated, the predictions will reflect these shortcomings.
   2. Example: A model predicting a high-scoring game based on outdated player stats may fail to account for a player's recent injury or limited playing time.
2. Overfitting:
   1. AI can overfit historical data, meaning it might predict outcomes based on trends that are no longer relevant due to changes in team dynamics or gameplay strategies.
3. Lack of Context:
   1. AI lacks human intuition and may fail to account for qualitative factors, such as emotional responses, player fatigue, or the impact of high-pressure situations on individual players.
4. Bias in AI Algorithms:
   1. Some AI platforms might unintentionally favor certain specific aspects of a player's performance, such as offense over defense, which can lead to skewed predictions.

Responsible Use of AI in Player Prop Betting

To leverage AI effectively while minimizing risks, consider these tips:

• Use AI as a Supplement, Not a Substitute: Combine AI insights with your own research and understanding of specific matchups and player performance.
• Cross-Verify Data: Double-check AI predictions against multiple sources, such as Pro Basketball Reference, Next-Gen Stats, or StatMuse.
• Stay Informed About Limitations: Be aware of potential biases or gaps in AI-generated data.
• Avoid Overconfidence: Even with advanced tools, no system can guarantee accurate predictions for every single game.

Perception of Easy Profits

A common misconception is that player prop markets are easier to exploit for profits than traditional betting lines. However, bettors are unlikely to achieve success without thorough research and analysis.

Overreliance on Star Players

Bettors often focus on star players, assuming they consistently meet performance expectations. This can lead to missed opportunities involving less prominent players who may offer better value in proposition bets.

Player prop betting is not inherently better or worse than other forms of wagering; it simply offers a different approach. It requires more focus on granular data and individual player outcomes, which can make it appealing to bettors who enjoy detail-oriented research. However, it also requires discipline and critical thinking to avoid common pitfalls, such as overreliance on star players or unverified predictions.

For anyone considering betting player props, it is important to recognize that all forms of sports betting involve risk, and outcomes are never guaranteed. Betting should never be seen as a reliable way to generate income and should always be approached with moderation. Resources for responsible gambling, such as the National Council on Problem Gambling, are available for anyone who feels their betting activity is becoming problematic.