Navigating NHL Betting Trends

• Goalie Matchups: Starting goaltenders do a great deal to determine the outcome of NHL games. Look at save percentages, goals-against-average, and the recent form of active goaltenders, and be aware of when backups are in. That can make a big difference. For example, in 2023-24, the Chicago Blackhawks had an ugly 23-53-6 record, but their success when starter Peter Mrazek was playing was significantly better than Arvid Soderblom as he gave up nearly one goal per game fewer than his backup.

• For some NHL teams, it makes a huge difference who's in the crease on a given night, so make sure you know. You can find the nightly starting goaltenders around the league at DailyFaceoff.com.
• Home-Ice Advantage: Home teams usually perform better, but the degree of that advantage differs by team. One franchise that has historically done especially well in its arena is the Colorado Avalanche, which plays in an unusual high-altitude environment in Denver. Between the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, they had the NHL's first-best away record (41-23-5) but were nearly unbeatable at home.
• Back-to-Back and Fatigue: Teams playing back-to-back often struggle, especially if the previous game was a travel game or went to OT. The Montreal Canadiens provided an extreme example of this phenomenon in 2023-24 when they went 1-11-1 with no days of rest, allowing more than twice as many goals as they scored.
• Special Teams Matchups: Power play (PP) and penalty kill (PK) percentages play a significant role in team results. In 2022-23, the Edmonton Oilers had the best power play in NHL history (32.4%). That season the team with the worst penalty kill in the NHL was the Vancouver Canucks (71.6%). When they met for the first time that season, Edmonton won 5-3 with three power-play goals. Special team mismatches aren't always that dramatic, but it's good to be aware of them.
• Player vs. Team Matchups: Due to small sample sizes, player vs. team numbers can sometimes be difficult to interpret, but there are situations where certain players are positioned to thrive or struggle against particular opponents.
• In recent years, Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews has been an extremely dangerous goal scorer, but he's only managed five goals in 14 games against the Los Angeles Kings, his lowest total against any NHL team. A likely explanation for this is that the Kings have had two elite defensive centers to match up with him: Anze Kopitar — who has won the Selke Trophy as the NHL's top defensive forward twice — and Phillip Danault, who's finished top-10 in Selke voting four times.
• Advanced Stats: Sometimes, a team's record can be deceptive if its shooting or save percentages are abnormal. One statistic to monitor is PDO, which combines those two numbers to determine if a team is getting lucky rather than controlling play. A number well above 100 suggests a club is likely to regress soon. In 2023-24, the Vancouver Canucks led the NHL with 71 after the first 49 games of the season, but a PDO of 104.5. From then on, their PDO regressed to a more normal 100.2, and their total points ranked 16th in the NHL.

Understanding NHL betting trends relating to goalie matchups, home-ice advantage, and special teams performance can help you make more informed wagers and enhance your enjoyment of betting on hockey.

Key Points:

• Goalie performance and fatigue from back-to-back games can significantly influence outcomes.
• Home-ice advantage varies by team, with some teams thriving in unique environments.
• Advanced stats like PDO and special teams mismatches provide insights into team performance.

By using these insights, you can develop a more strategic approach to NHL betting.