Understanding NFL Betting Trends
When betting on any NFL game, it’s useful to be aware of statistical trends about the players and teams involved. Instead of betting simply on which team you perceive to be better, it's helpful to dig deeper into short-term and historical trends that could factor into the outcome.
For example, if you're betting on a Week 12 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football, it pays to know whether those teams have a winning or losing record on short rest or whether either has a player who's performed like a star in recent weeks due to a change in role.
For every single game during the NFL season, there are countless intricate details about each team, their player stats, injury reports, and historical win-loss records. Basic statistics and advanced analytics give you insight into the factors that can affect a game, such as quarterback play, defensive prowess, and situational performance. All these data points allow you to make more informed and potentially more accurate predictions — even on relatively simple bets, like which team will win a game outright.
Pro bettors and amateurs now have more access to real-time odds, stats, and analytics than ever before. The goal of this guide is to give you information on the type of trends worth looking out for while refreshing you on the NFL odds you're likely to see and some responsible gambling principles that should be applied to all betting, no matter how much statistical trends back it.
Check out this guide on the RG Game Changers Podcast
NFL Betting Odds Are The Foundation of Any Strategy
NFL odds are the foundation of all betting on the sport. Before you start diving into statistical trends, it's important to understand the odds to make informed decisions.
These odds indicate the probability of different outcomes in the games, from simple win/lose scenarios to more complex event predictions. The American odds format uses positive and negative numbers, each meaning different things for payout and betting requirements.
American Odds
Positive numbers identify the underdog in the matchup. The number is how much you would win on a $100 bet if the underdog wins. For example, if the odds are +150, a $100 bet would return $150 in profit plus your $100 bet for a total of $250.
Negative numbers identify the favorite. The number is how much you need to bet to win $100 in profit. For example, if the odds are -150, you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit, a total of $250 when you add your original bet back.
NFL Examples
Example 1: Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Cowboys Odds: +200
- Eagles Odds: -240
- Meaning: Eagles are favorites. To win $100 on the Eagles, you need to bet $240. To win $200 on the Cowboys, if they win, you would bet $100.
Example 2: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
- Packers Odds: -175
- Bears Odds: +155
- Meaning: Packers are favorites. A $175 bet on the Packers would win $100 if they win. A $100 bet on the Bears would earn $155 if they win.
Takeaways
- Positive odds are higher reward but higher risk as they are the underdog.
- Negative odds are safer bets on favorites but require a bigger initial investment for a smaller return.
Most Reviewed NFL Sportsbooks
- Availability across most of US legal states
- Competitive odds & diverse markets
- Attentive customer service
- Extensive list of Same Game Parlay's
- App speeds vary for some users
- Geo locate sometimes unreliable
- Extensive betting markets
- Live betting
- Efficient & secure payments
- Strong security measures
- Mobile app connectivity issues
- Maximum bets on odds boosts are low.
- Promotional restrictions
- Available in many U.S. States and Canada
- Numerous betting markets
- Major partnerships with teams/leagues
- Promotions are timely and change rapidly
- Connectivity issues on betting app
- Extensive Market Reach.
- Unmatched Fan Engagement.
- Live betting.
- Digital media bohemeth.
- Limited live streaming.
- Connectivity issues on betting apps.
NFL Betting Trends
When it comes to betting trends, NFL teams often have track records that provide some insight into how they may perform in the future. However, it isn't always easy to parse these trends to find meaningful insights to inform your NFL wagers.
If an NFL team wins three straight games on Monday Night Football or Thursday Night Football, that may not indicate they have a special means of succeeding on those days. After all, a primetime record like that may span multiple years and no longer be relevant when you place your bet.
You might also encounter a trend related to a team that incorporates NFL preseason games. In this case, it is always wise to be skeptical of it. During the preseason, teams rest their best players and play members of the roster they are trying to evaluate. Results in these games are rarely indicative of future outcomes.
Below are some key trends to keep an eye out for.
Historical Trends
To gain an advantage, look at past seasons' data. Look for patterns, such as how teams perform against the spread, over/under trends, and under certain conditions (e.g., as home underdogs).
Multi-year trends need to be taken with a grain of salt as rosters change, but sometimes consistent elements remain.
For example, two of the NFL's top head coaches -- Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan -- both lead teams in the NFC West and play divisional games against each other multiple times per season. The fact that Shanahan has a 10-7 record against McVay may touch on a durable ability to outmatch the Los Angeles Rams head coach.
Historical trends are not always easy to find, but on the player side, one useful resource is Pro-Football-Reference. If you search for any player on the site, you can find their career splits and see how they've performed in certain situations, such as at home vs. away or against specific opponents.
For example, quarterback Kirk Cousins has famously struggled on Monday Night Football. Cousins has a 5-10 record on games played on Monday, while he's 78-64-2 in all other situations.
On the team side, Statmuse can be a helpful tool that will give you information on any team's record against another squad all-time or over a specific period. The platform has a subscription model and will prevent free users from seeing the details of every inquiry, but the topline information is available.
In-season trends
NFL seasons have phases, and betting trends can vary across those phases. Teams may start strong and fade in the middle or pick up steam towards the end. Injuries, trades, and team changes can all affect these trends. Pay attention to these seasonal shifts to make better bets.
A famous instance of an in-season trend is coach Kliff Kingsbury's tendency to have his offense slow down as the year marches on. During his four-year tenure as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, here's a breakdown of how his offenses performed by month.
Month | Yards/Game | Points/Game |
---|---|---|
September | 379.6 | 23.7 |
October | 375.4 | 26.0 |
November | 342.0 | 22.9 |
December | 344.3 | 20.7 |
Keeping information like that in mind could help bettors decide on how they feel about late-season games for the Washington Commanders, as Kingsbury is currently their offensive coordinator.
A good resource for monitoring team trends throughout the season is TeamRankings.com; with this site, you can check how every team is performing as a favorite vs underdog, at home vs. on the road, after a win vs. after a loss, and a variety of other situations.
For players, Pro-Football Reference's splits tool is still effective, but another one worth considering is their game log page for each player. By looking at how a player has produced on a game-by-game basis, you can get a better sense of how they're trending than just by examining their season-long numbers.
For example, Cleveland Browns receiver Jerry Jeudy finished the 2024 season sixth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,229). However, in his first seven games, he averaged just 38 yards per game, while he managed 96.3 in the final 10.
Looking at Jeudy's season-long numbers would tell you he was a good player to back on prop bets throughout 2024, but his campaign was actually split into two distinct sections, one unproductive and the other extremely productive.
Popular NFL Betting Strategies
Betting Against the Public
Also known as 'fading the public,' this strategy is betting against the team the public is backing.
The idea is the sportsbooks adjust the lines to balance the money, not necessarily the game outcome. By identifying and understanding public biases (like favoring favorites or overvaluing recent performances), you can find value in going against these trends.
Keep in mind that the 'wisdom of crowds' effect is real, and the betting public may be moving moneyline odds for valid reasons. Only make contrarian bets if you are confident in your research.
Target Key Numbers on Spreads
In NFL betting, certain point margins (3, 7, 10) are more common due to the way scoring works (field goals and touchdowns). These are called “key numbers.”
Knowing how spreads relate to key numbers can help you find value and avoid bad bets. It can be profitable to target lines near key numbers like -2.5/+2.5 or -6.5/+6.5. In 2022, the Washington Post did a study on the most common margins of victory in NFL games, and in their sample, 31% of all games were won by the three most common margins: 3 points, 6 points, and 7 points.
Keeping in mind that these outcomes are far more common than others, it can be wise to target favorites at -2.5 or underdogs at +3.5 to account for their frequency. With those bets, the most common outcome is on your side. The same can be said for bets on -6.5 favorites and +7.5 underdogs.
Using Data and Analytics
In this modern era of sports betting, data and analytics play a huge role, and using statistical analysis can help you make better betting decisions.
There are plenty of advanced metrics that can help inform wagers, although none provide a foolproof way to consistently win your NFL bets.
Sites like Pro-Football-Reference and NFL.com provide a great deal of statistical data for free, and if you're looking to dive deeper, a paid Pro Football Focus subscription can also provide more depth to your research.
It is up to the bettor to decide how to weigh all the information available to you.
Keep Coaches in Mind
Coaches are important to the success and failure of teams, and sometimes their philosophies and levels of risk tolerance affect a team's likelihood to perform in a certain way. There are also coaches who have a track record of consistently being overestimated or underestimated by the betting market.
One example is Jim Harbaugh, whose teams have a remarkable 63.8% record against the spread in an 81-game sample.
Sometimes coaches have more specific tendencies. For instance, Mike Tomlin's teams have a 47.9% record against the spread in a 192-game sample, but their ATS record as underdogs is 63.5%. Doubt a Tomlin team to play well against a tough opponent at your peril.
NFL Games Player Injuries and Team News
Player Injuries
Injuries play a large role in outcomes in the NFL. A key player’s absence can weaken a team’s offense or defense and affect the betting lines. As a bettor, it’s important to monitor injury reports, which are usually released a few days before the game.
Look at the player’s role in the team and how they contributed in previous games to gauge the injury’s impact. Also, look at how the team performed without this player in the past. This will give you insight into if you need to adjust your betting strategy.
A good example is the Baltimore Ravens. Since their two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson broke into the league in 2018, the team has had more than twice as many wins as losses in his starts.
When he doesn't play, Baltimore has struggled:
Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images
Team News
Team news, such as coaching changes, player trades, or internal issues, can also impact the game. These changes can affect team morale and performance. Stay informed by following reputable sports news sources and team social media.
Look at how similar changes have affected teams in the past. For example, a new coach might bring a new system that can help the team or cause initial struggles.
In 2024, the Los Angeles Chargers saw this effect after hiring Jim Harbaugh after a nine-year run at Michigan, where he went 89-25 and won a national title. It only took the Chargers nine games in 2024 to exceed their full-season win total from 2023 (5).
Keep your Football Gambling Responsible
If you've studied your betting trends, you may increase your confidence in placing bets, but it's important to stay grounded.
Elements of randomness can cause even a thoroughly researched bet to lose, and profitability isn't always attainable in the long term.
Here are a few things to remember when placing bets on NFL games:
- Know the Risks - Gambling should always be treated as a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. The risks are gambling addiction and financial loss. Only bet what you can afford to lose and be aware of the signs of problem gambling, such as chasing losses, betting more than you can afford, or gambling interfering with your daily life.
- Bankroll Management is Critical - One of the most important steps for keeping gambling fun is to manage your bankroll closely. As a rule of thumb, it's usually best to be between 1-5% of your total bankroll on individual bets. Avoid ratcheting up your average bet amount in an effort to chase losses.
- Tools and Strategies for Responsible Gambling - To gamble responsibly, set a budget for your betting and stick to it. Use the tools provided by many sportsbooks, like deposit limits or self-exclusion options. If you’re struggling with a gambling problem, don’t hesitate to seek help. Resources like the National Council on Problem Gambling in the U.S. or Canada’s Responsible Gambling Council can help and advise.
Conclusion: Key Takeaways on NFL Betting Trends
This guide should provide you with some useful information on how NFL trends can inform your betting. Below is a rundown of some of the basics.
- Be aware of Historical and In-Season Trends: Historical data is useful, but focus on recent and relevant trends, especially those that take into account current player and team situations.
- Know the Odds Before You Bet: Make sure you understand how odds work to better assess the risk and reward associated with each wager. Underdogs with positive odds have higher returns, while favorites with negative odds provide smaller payouts but may be safer bets.
- Use Data and Analytics: Use sites like Pro-Football-Reference or Pro Football Focus to supplement your research. Combining traditional stats with advanced analytics can help inform your wagers.
- Injuries and News: Monitor player injury reports and team news. Lines and betting outcomes can be significantly altered by the NFL news cycle.
- Contrarian Betting: Betting against the public can sometimes provide value, but only when you have done your research and have insight.
- Responsible Gambling: Manage your bankroll, bet within your means, and treat betting as entertainment, not a way to earn money. Use the tools and resources available to you to gamble responsibly.
Reference
Current (January 07, 2025)
Current
Related Articles
Meet our Authors
Paruyr Shahbazyan
Paruyr Shahbazyan started his business career as an entrepreneur in 2000. Over 13 years, he learned business and leadership, which laid the foundation for his career.
In 2013, Paruyr entered the sports and betting industry as the founder and president of Bookmaker Rating, an online media platform he led until 2020. The platform focuses on in-depth analysis and insights in sports betting and has gained a reputation for quality content.
In 2022, Paruyr co-founded Azuro, a decentralized betting protocol. This shows his commitment to technology in the sports betting space. Through all these experiences, Paruyr has been shaping and influencing the betting industry, setting new trends and standards.
Innovation in sportsbetting comes from a deep understanding of both technology and the human element of sports.
Strategic Vision
Paruyr's vision is to revolutionize the sports entertainment industry by integrating technology. He sees the future of sports entertainment as a blend of traditional sports knowledge with innovative tech solutions, like decentralized protocols, to enhance user experience and fairness. He aims to create platforms that are not only user-friendly but also uphold the highest standards of ethical reporting, contributing to a more responsible and enjoyable sports culture.
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups, Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work provides clear, factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research, so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence-based, and accessible.
At RG, Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction, RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and sports entertainment that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go-to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.
Cristina Varela Galan
Cristina used to work as a Psychology Assistant in the Bizkaia Pathological and Risky Gamblers Association. She was also part of a research team in Deusto University, specializing in pathological gambling area. While working there, she managed to develop her own project
“Exploring the association between emotional regulation, alexithymia, stressful life events and gambling in adolescent and young adult women”.
Nick Ashbourne
Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game in 1998, and he's been writing about them professionally since 2014.
Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports while growing his expertise in sports data analysis and research.
Between 2022 and 2023, he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets. In 2024, he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the RG team.
Sergey Demidov
Sergey has been in sports journalism since 2007 as a reporter, editor, and manager. He has covered the Olympic Games, soccer World Cups, the World Cup of Hockey in 2016, the European championships, the Stanley Cup Finals, IOC events, and many others. Sergey interviewed the sport's greatest athletes, coaches, and executives. Since 2016, he has been an Independent Senior Editor of NHL.com/ru.
Anna Kravtcova
Ph.D. in organizational psychology, an internationally certified psychologist (EuroPsy 2022, Cognitive behavioural therapy of mindfulness 2020, International Society for Emotional Intelligence 2017, Russian Psychological society 2014, American Psychological Association(Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychologist) 2011), speaker of many international conferences (USA, Brazil, Portugal, Czech Republic, Russia, etc.). TEDx speaker.