Understanding NFL Betting Trends

14 min read
Jan 31, 2024, 12:50 PM
Author
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief
Last Updated: Mar 13, 2025, 3:19 PM

NFL Betting Odds Are The Foundation of Any Strategy

NFL odds are the foundation of all betting on the sport. Before you start diving into statistical trends, it's important to understand the odds to make informed decisions.

These odds indicate the probability of different outcomes in the games, from simple win/lose scenarios to more complex event predictions. The American odds format uses positive and negative numbers, each meaning different things for payout and betting requirements.

American Odds

Positive numbers identify the underdog in the matchup. The number is how much you would win on a $100 bet if the underdog wins. For example, if the odds are +150, a $100 bet would return $150 in profit plus your $100 bet for a total of $250.

Negative numbers identify the favorite. The number is how much you need to bet to win $100 in profit. For example, if the odds are -150, you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit, a total of $250 when you add your original bet back.

NFL Examples

Example 1: Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Cowboys Odds: +200
  • Eagles Odds: -240
  • Meaning: Eagles are favorites. To win $100 on the Eagles, you need to bet $240. To win $200 on the Cowboys, if they win, you would bet $100.

Example 2: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

  • Packers Odds: -175
  • Bears Odds: +155
  • Meaning: Packers are favorites. A $175 bet on the Packers would win $100 if they win. A $100 bet on the Bears would earn $155 if they win.

Takeaways

  • Positive odds are higher reward but higher risk as they are the underdog.
  • Negative odds are safer bets on favorites but require a bigger initial investment for a smaller return.

Most Reviewed NFL Sportsbooks

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NFL Games Player Injuries and Team News

Player Injuries

Injuries play a large role in outcomes in the NFL. A key player’s absence can weaken a team’s offense or defense and affect the betting lines. As a bettor, it’s important to monitor injury reports, which are usually released a few days before the game.

Look at the player’s role in the team and how they contributed in previous games to gauge the injury’s impact. Also, look at how the team performed without this player in the past. This will give you insight into if you need to adjust your betting strategy.

A good example is the Baltimore Ravens. Since their two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson broke into the league in 2018, the team has had more than twice as many wins as losses in his starts.

When he doesn't play, Baltimore has struggled:

The Baltimore Ravens record without Lamar Jackson.

Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images

Team News

Team news, such as coaching changes, player trades, or internal issues, can also impact the game. These changes can affect team morale and performance. Stay informed by following reputable sports news sources and team social media.

Look at how similar changes have affected teams in the past. For example, a new coach might bring a new system that can help the team or cause initial struggles.

In 2024, the Los Angeles Chargers saw this effect after hiring Jim Harbaugh after a nine-year run at Michigan, where he went 89-25 and won a national title. It only took the Chargers nine games in 2024 to exceed their full-season win total from 2023 (5).

Keep your Football Gambling Responsible

If you've studied your betting trends, you may increase your confidence in placing bets, but it's important to stay grounded.

Elements of randomness can cause even a thoroughly researched bet to lose, and profitability isn't always attainable in the long term.

Here are a few things to remember when placing bets on NFL games:

  • Know the Risks - Gambling should always be treated as a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. The risks are gambling addiction and financial loss. Only bet what you can afford to lose and be aware of the signs of problem gambling, such as chasing losses, betting more than you can afford, or gambling interfering with your daily life.
  • Bankroll Management is Critical - One of the most important steps for keeping gambling fun is to manage your bankroll closely. As a rule of thumb, it's usually best to be between 1-5% of your total bankroll on individual bets. Avoid ratcheting up your average bet amount in an effort to chase losses.
  • Tools and Strategies for Responsible Gambling - To gamble responsibly, set a budget for your betting and stick to it. Use the tools provided by many sportsbooks, like deposit limits or self-exclusion options. If you’re struggling with a gambling problem, don’t hesitate to seek help. Resources like the National Council on Problem Gambling in the U.S. or Canada’s Responsible Gambling Council can help and advise.

Reference

Sources
Page Revisions
GiveMeSport
No Starters: Revisiting How Sean McVay Changed the NFL preseason
https://www.givemesport.com/sean-mcvay-no-starters-changed-nfl-preseason/
Sporting News
Sean McVay vs. Kyle Shanahan record: Inside the head-to-head history between Rams, 49ers coaches
https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/sean-mcvay-kyle-shanahan-record-history-between-rams-49ers-coaches/45d12c83d8672186f78b2eda
CBS Sports
Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury dismisses concern about his offenses falling off in second half of seasons
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/commanders-oc-kliff-kingsbury-dismisses-concern-about-his-offenses-falling-off-in-second-half-of-seasons/
Pro Football Focus
https://www.pff.com/
Sports Reference
Jim Harbaugh College Coaching Record
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/coaches/jim-harbaugh-1.html
Pro-Football-Reference
Kirk Cousins Splits
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CousKi00.htm
Washington Post
The key numbers for NFL betting — and how to use them to your advantage
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/09/20/nfl-margin-victory-point-spreads/
BetMGM
NFL Betting - Each NFL coach's record against the spread
https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/nfl-head-coaches-against-the-spread-records-bm16/
Current (January 07, 2025)
Current
Written By
Nick Ashbourne
Checked By
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
<p>With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups, Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work provides clear, factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research, so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence-based, and accessible.</p><p>At RG, Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction, RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and sports entertainment that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go-to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.</p>
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