Understanding NFL Betting Trends

When it comes to betting trends, NFL teams often have track records that provide some insight into how they may perform in the future. However, it isn't always easy to parse these trends to find meaningful insights to inform your NFL wagers.

If an NFL team wins three straight games on Monday Night Football or Thursday Night Football, that may not indicate they have a special means of succeeding on those days. After all, a primetime record like that may span multiple years and no longer be relevant when you place your bet.

You might also encounter a trend related to a team that incorporates NFL preseason games. In this case, it is always wise to be skeptical of it. During the preseason, teams rest their best players and play members of the roster they are trying to evaluate. Results in these games are rarely indicative of future outcomes.

Below are some key trends to keep an eye out for.

Historical Trends

To gain an advantage, look at past seasons' data. Look for patterns, such as how teams perform against the spread, over/under trends, and under certain conditions (e.g., as home underdogs).

Multi-year trends need to be taken with a grain of salt as rosters change, but sometimes consistent elements remain.

For example, two of the NFL's top head coaches -- Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan -- both lead teams in the NFC West and play divisional games against each other multiple times per season. The fact that Shanahan has a 10-7 record against McVay may touch on a durable ability to outmatch the Los Angeles Rams head coach.

Historical trends are not always easy to find, but on the player side, one useful resource is Pro-Football-Reference. If you search for any player on the site, you can find their career splits and see how they've performed in certain situations, such as at home vs. away or against specific opponents.

For example, quarterback Kirk Cousins has famously struggled on Monday Night Football. Cousins has a 5-10 record on games played on Monday, while he's 78-64-2 in all other situations.

On the team side, Statmuse can be a helpful tool that will give you information on any team's record against another squad all-time or over a specific period. The platform has a subscription model and will prevent free users from seeing the details of every inquiry, but the topline information is available.

In-season trends

NFL seasons have phases, and betting trends can vary across those phases. Teams may start strong and fade in the middle or pick up steam towards the end. Injuries, trades, and team changes can all affect these trends. Pay attention to these seasonal shifts to make better bets.

A famous instance of an in-season trend is coach Kliff Kingsbury's tendency to have his offense slow down as the year marches on. During his four-year tenure as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, here's a breakdown of how his offenses performed by month.

[CBS Sports, 2024]

Keeping information like that in mind could help bettors decide on how they feel about late-season games for the Washington Commanders, as Kingsbury is currently their offensive coordinator.

A good resource for monitoring team trends throughout the season is TeamRankings.com; with this site, you can check how every team is performing as a favorite vs underdog, at home vs. on the road, after a win vs. after a loss, and a variety of other situations.

For players, Pro-Football Reference's splits tool is still effective, but another one worth considering is their game log page for each player. By looking at how a player has produced on a game-by-game basis, you can get a better sense of how they're trending than just by examining their season-long numbers.

For example, Cleveland Browns receiver Jerry Jeudy finished the 2024 season sixth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,229). However, in his first seven games, he averaged just 38 yards per game, while he managed 96.3 in the final 10. 

Looking at Jeudy's season-long numbers would tell you he was a good player to back on prop bets throughout 2024, but his campaign was actually split into two distinct sections, one unproductive and the other extremely productive.

Betting Against the Public

Also known as 'fading the public,' this strategy is betting against the team the public is backing.

The idea is the sportsbooks adjust the lines to balance the money, not necessarily the game outcome. By identifying and understanding public biases (like favoring favorites or overvaluing recent performances), you can find value in going against these trends.

Keep in mind that the 'wisdom of crowds' effect is real, and the betting public may be moving moneyline odds for valid reasons. Only make contrarian bets if you are confident in your research.

Target Key Numbers on Spreads

In NFL betting, certain point margins (3, 7, 10) are more common due to the way scoring works (field goals and touchdowns). These are called “key numbers.”

Knowing how spreads relate to key numbers can help you find value and avoid bad bets. It can be profitable to target lines near key numbers like -2.5/+2.5 or -6.5/+6.5. In 2022, the Washington Post did a study on the most common margins of victory in NFL games, and in their sample, 31% of all games were won by the three most common margins: 3 points, 6 points, and 7 points.

Keeping in mind that these outcomes are far more common than others, it can be wise to target favorites at -2.5 or underdogs at +3.5 to account for their frequency. With those bets, the most common outcome is on your side. The same can be said for bets on -6.5 favorites and +7.5 underdogs.

Using Data and Analytics

In this modern era of sports betting, data and analytics play a huge role, and using statistical analysis can help you make better betting decisions.

There are plenty of advanced metrics that can help inform wagers, although none provide a foolproof way to consistently win your NFL bets.

Sites like Pro-Football-Reference and NFL.com provide a great deal of statistical data for free, and if you're looking to dive deeper, a paid Pro Football Focus subscription can also provide more depth to your research.

It is up to the bettor to decide how to weigh all the information available to you.

Keep Coaches in Mind

Coaches are important to the success and failure of teams, and sometimes their philosophies and levels of risk tolerance affect a team's likelihood to perform in a certain way. There are also coaches who have a track record of consistently being overestimated or underestimated by the betting market.

One example is Jim Harbaugh, whose teams have a remarkable 63.8% record against the spread in an 81-game sample.

Sometimes coaches have more specific tendencies. For instance, Mike Tomlin's teams have a 47.9% record against the spread in a 192-game sample, but their ATS record as underdogs is 63.5%. Doubt a Tomlin team to play well against a tough opponent at your peril.

Player Injuries

Injuries play a large role in outcomes in the NFL. A key player’s absence can weaken a team’s offense or defense and affect the betting lines. As a bettor, it’s important to monitor injury reports, which are usually released a few days before the game.

Look at the player’s role in the team and how they contributed in previous games to gauge the injury’s impact. Also, look at how the team performed without this player in the past. This will give you insight into if you need to adjust your betting strategy.

A good example is the Baltimore Ravens. Since their two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson broke into the league in 2018, the team has had more than twice as many wins as losses in his starts.

When he doesn't play, Baltimore has struggled:

Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images

Team News

Team news, such as coaching changes, player trades, or internal issues, can also impact the game. These changes can affect team morale and performance. Stay informed by following reputable sports news sources and team social media.

Look at how similar changes have affected teams in the past. For example, a new coach might bring a new system that can help the team or cause initial struggles.

In 2024, the Los Angeles Chargers saw this effect after hiring Jim Harbaugh after a nine-year run at Michigan, where he went 89-25 and won a national title. It only took the Chargers nine games in 2024 to exceed their full-season win total from 2023 (5).

If you've studied your betting trends, you may increase your confidence in placing bets, but it's important to stay grounded.

Elements of randomness can cause even a thoroughly researched bet to lose, and profitability isn't always attainable in the long term.

Here are a few things to remember when placing bets on NFL games:

• Know the Risks - Gambling should always be treated as a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. The risks are gambling addiction and financial loss. Only bet what you can afford to lose and be aware of the signs of problem gambling, such as chasing losses, betting more than you can afford, or gambling interfering with your daily life.
• Bankroll Management is Critical - One of the most important steps for keeping gambling fun is to manage your bankroll closely. As a rule of thumb, it's usually best to be between 1-5% of your total bankroll on individual bets. Avoid ratcheting up your average bet amount in an effort to chase losses.
• Tools and Strategies for Responsible Gambling - To gamble responsibly, set a budget for your betting and stick to it. Use the tools provided by many sportsbooks, like deposit limits or self-exclusion options. If you’re struggling with a gambling problem, don’t hesitate to seek help. Resources like the National Council on Problem Gambling in the U.S. or Canada’s Responsible Gambling Council can help and advise.

This guide should provide you with some useful information on how NFL trends can inform your betting. Below is a rundown of some of the basics.

• Be aware of Historical and In-Season Trends: Historical data is useful, but focus on recent and relevant trends, especially those that take into account current player and team situations.
• Know the Odds Before You Bet: Make sure you understand how odds work to better assess the risk and reward associated with each wager. Underdogs with positive odds have higher returns, while favorites with negative odds provide smaller payouts but may be safer bets.
• Use Data and Analytics: Use sites like Pro-Football-Reference or Pro Football Focus to supplement your research. Combining traditional stats with advanced analytics can help inform your wagers.
• Injuries and News: Monitor player injury reports and team news. Lines and betting outcomes can be significantly altered by the NFL news cycle.
• Contrarian Betting: Betting against the public can sometimes provide value, but only when you have done your research and have insight.
• Responsible Gambling: Manage your bankroll, bet within your means, and treat betting as entertainment, not a way to earn money. Use the tools and resources available to you to gamble responsibly.