Navigating NBA Betting Trends

NBA trends are constantly shifting, but there are certain statistical tendencies that are always worth noticing.

1. Historical Trends

History does not always repeat itself, but being aware of what's happened in previous seasons can be instructive when you're placing bets.

For example, the Golden State Warriors have a strong home record of 356-134 when Steph Curry is in the lineup from his rookie season (2008-09) to December 2024. The current team is different from some of the teams that accumulated that record, but Curry's presence and the atmosphere at Oracle Arena is a constant.

Another example is how the Denver Nuggets struggle without superstar center Nikola Jokic. Denver has been one of the best teams in the NBA in recent seasons, but the Nuggets' record is below .500 without its three-time MVP.

Credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

2. In-Season Trends

While following a trend with a large sample size spanning multiple seasons is appealing, it's also important to monitor smaller trends that emerge as the season progresses.

In some cases, players or teams have a history of performing statistically in a certain way over the course of the season.

One pertinent example is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Milwaukee Bucks' superstar forward has a lengthy track record of performing well at the beginning of the regular season and slowing down at the end, either due to fatigue -- or to prepare for the playoffs.

3. Home-Court Advantage and Playing at Home

Home-court advantage is one of the most significant NBA trends. One team often performs better when playing in its home arena. Familiarity with the court, crowd support, and reduced travel fatigue can all contribute to this advantage. Bettors should carefully evaluate a team's record when playing at home rather than on the road.

• Example: The Boston Celtics win record excelled at home in the 2023-24 NBA season, going 37-4 (90.24% win percentage).

4. Rest vs. Fatigue in Matchups

Teams playing back-to-back games or enduring long road trips often struggle, particularly against well-rested opponents. Rest is a critical factor influencing performance, making it a key trend for sharp bettors to monitor.

5. Impact of Injuries on Against the Spread (ATS) and Money Line Wagers

Missing key players often shifts the market significantly, as sportsbooks adjust the point spreads and totals. Bettors need to track injury reports to identify opportunities where the absence of a star player could create value.

6. Underdog Opportunities and Sharp Money Movements

Underdogs often exceed expectations, particularly when the public heavily backs the favorite. Money percentages can help bettors identify matchups where sharp money is backing the underdog, creating valuable opportunities.

• Example: during the 2024 NBA Finals, the Dallas Mavericks were underdogs against the Boston Celtics. Despite significant public betting on the Mavericks to cover the spread, the Celtics secured a decisive victory in Game 1, leading to substantial losses for public bettors.

7. Tanking Teams Late in the Season

Teams out of playoff contention often prioritize draft positioning over wins, impacting both ATS records and money percentages. Bettors should be cautious when playing these matchups late in the season.

There is no one ultimate NBA betting strategy that guarantees success, but a few guiding principles can help guide your basketball wagers.

• Research Team Performance: Look at recent games, injuries, and head-to-head records. An NBA team can be different from one month to another, depending on which players are available and how their roles change. In the 2024-25 NBA season, the Milwaukee Bucks started 2-8, but by the end of December, they had a 17-14 record that ranked fifth in the Eastern Conference. Teams find their footing or hit significant slumps all the time. 
• Track Line Movement: Watch how the lines move to see what the public and pros are betting. You don't need to follow the crowd, but understanding the general consensus and where the money wagered is going can be helpful.
• Pay Attention to Situational Angles: Sometimes, the schedule can significantly affect results. Note when teams are playing back-to-backs or dealing with a tough travel schedule. For an example of how powerful this effect can be, the Indiana Pacers were 3-10 on no rest in 2023-24 and 44-25 in all other situations.
• Don't Overreact on One Game: One game doesn't make a trend. A team looking awful in one game you watch isn't necessarily indicative of future performance.

NBA odds are the foundation of all betting on the sport. Bettors need to understand the odds before they can start to dive deeper into the trends that could affect their betting strategies.

The odds indicate the probability of different outcomes in an NBA game, from simple win/lose scenarios to more complex event predictions. Odds are presented in three formats - American, Decimal, and Fractional, but our guide will focus on American odds.

The American odds format uses positive (+) and negative (-) numbers, each impacting aspects of payout and betting requirements.

About American Odds

The positive numbers identify the underdog in an NBA game. The number is what you would win on a $100 bet if the underdog wins. For example, if the odds are +150, a $100 bet would return $150 in profit plus your $100 bet for a total of $250.

In sports betting, negative numbers identify the favorite. The number is what you need to bet to win $100 in profit. For example, if the odds are -150, you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit, a total of $250 when you add your original bet back.

Let's look at these examples from NBA games:

Example 1: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

• Pelicans Odds: +230
• Thunder Odds: -290
• Meaning: The Thunder are favorites. To win $100 backing the Oklahoma City, you need to bet $290. A $100 bet on the Pelicans would earn $230 if they win.

Example 2: Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers

• Celtics Odds: -215
• Pacers Odds: +175
• Meaning: The Celtics are favorites. A $175 bet on Boston would win $100 if they win, while a $100 bet on the Pacers would earn $155 if they win.

Takeaways

• Positive odds offer greater rewards but higher risk as they are wagers on the underdog.
• Negative odds are safer bets on the favorites but require a bigger initial investment for a smaller return.

Either way, no bet is a sure bet, but making informed decisions will help lessen the risk.

Once you feel you have a good handle on how basketball odds work, it's important to understand what betting options are available. Online sportsbooks offer every bet type under the sun, and every NBA bettor has their own preferences.

Below, you'll find a summary of some common wager types:

No matter how well you identify and follow statistical trends, it is critical to use responsible gambling practices whenever you bet.

• Set a Budget: Decide in advance how much money you're willing to spend and never exceed that number. It is unwise to have your budget exceed 1-5% of your disposable income.
• Use Betting/Loss Limits: You can build on you can used tools available at major online sportsbooks to make your budgeting stricter. Betting limits put a hard ceiling on what can be wagered on a single bet or session, while loss limits prevent you from losing more than you can afford.
• Time Management: Only gamble for a certain amount of time, and be ready to walk away and take breaks. Many sportsbooks offer time limits on how long you can stay signed in on their website or app or 'cool-off' periods that allow users to take a break for a specific amount of time.
• Use Tracking Tools: Use sportsbooks' tracking tools to monitor your wins and losses carefully. This will help you assess how gambling is affecting you and let you know if your betting is beginning to get out of control. Sometimes, it's possible to have a warped perception of your betting activity, and it makes sense to look at some objective data.
• Commit to Self-Exclusion if Necessary: If you see signs of problematic behavior in yourself, take advantage of the option to put yourself on a self-exclusion list. This will prevent you from accessing betting operators when your gambling has become a problem.

Responsible betting requires informed decisions, good bankroll management, and staying current with the sport and the betting landscape.

No matter how closely you monitor NBA trends or how sound your analysis seems, it's crucial to always consider gambling a form of entertainment rather than a reliable income stream.

There are no guarantees in the world of NBA betting, but you can put yourself in a better position to succeed if you research and stick to responsible gambling principles.

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