Introduction to NBA Betting Trends
The National Basketball Association (NBA) is one of the most popular leagues to bet in the United States. In fact, in 2023, basketball narrowly edged out football as the sport Americans prefer to bet on the most.
The popularity of NCAA basketball also plays a central role in that statistic, with $2.72 billion wagered on March Madness alone in 2024. The NBA takes top grade with more money bet during the 1,230 games (82 games x 30 teams) in the regular season and the thrilling NBA playoffs.
Whether fans are dialed in on their local team or watching the best matchups from around the league on NBA League Pass, they often bet on the action.
This guide explores important NBA Betting trends, wagering on basketball, NBA odds, and NBA betting markets, as well as how to identify and use NBA betting trends to help you make more informed bets.
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Important NBA Betting Trends
NBA trends are constantly shifting, but there are certain statistical tendencies that are always worth noticing.
1. Historical Trends
History does not always repeat itself, but being aware of what's happened in previous seasons can be instructive when you're placing bets.
For example, the Golden State Warriors have a strong home record of 356-134 when Steph Curry is in the lineup from his rookie season (2008-09) to December 2024. The current team is different from some of the teams that accumulated that record, but Curry's presence and the atmosphere at Oracle Arena is a constant.
Another example is how the Denver Nuggets struggle without superstar center Nikola Jokic. Denver has been one of the best teams in the NBA in recent seasons, but the Nuggets' record is below .500 without its three-time MVP.

Credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
2. In-Season Trends
While following a trend with a large sample size spanning multiple seasons is appealing, it's also important to monitor smaller trends that emerge as the season progresses.
In some cases, players or teams have a history of performing statistically in a certain way over the course of the season.
One pertinent example is Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Milwaukee Bucks' superstar forward has a lengthy track record of performing well at the beginning of the regular season and slowing down at the end, either due to fatigue -- or to prepare for the playoffs.
Month | Points Per Game | Rebounds Per Game |
---|---|---|
October | 27.1 | 11.1 |
April | 19.7 | 8.9 |
3. Home-Court Advantage and Playing at Home
Home-court advantage is one of the most significant NBA trends. One team often performs better when playing in its home arena. Familiarity with the court, crowd support, and reduced travel fatigue can all contribute to this advantage. Bettors should carefully evaluate a team's record when playing at home rather than on the road.
- Example: The Boston Celtics win record excelled at home in the 2023-24 NBA season, going 37-4 (90.24% win percentage).
4. Rest vs. Fatigue in Matchups
Teams playing back-to-back games or enduring long road trips often struggle, particularly against well-rested opponents. Rest is a critical factor influencing performance, making it a key trend for sharp bettors to monitor.
5. Impact of Injuries on Against the Spread (ATS) and Money Line Wagers
Missing key players often shifts the market significantly, as sportsbooks adjust the point spreads and totals. Bettors need to track injury reports to identify opportunities where the absence of a star player could create value.
6. Underdog Opportunities and Sharp Money Movements
Underdogs often exceed expectations, particularly when the public heavily backs the favorite. Money percentages can help bettors identify matchups where sharp money is backing the underdog, creating valuable opportunities.
- Example: during the 2024 NBA Finals, the Dallas Mavericks were underdogs against the Boston Celtics. Despite significant public betting on the Mavericks to cover the spread, the Celtics secured a decisive victory in Game 1, leading to substantial losses for public bettors.
7. Tanking Teams Late in the Season
Teams out of playoff contention often prioritize draft positioning over wins, impacting both ATS records and money percentages. Bettors should be cautious when playing these matchups late in the season.