How to Bet Responsibly on the NBA

10 min read
Dec 27, 2023, 6:42 PM
Author
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief
Fact checked by:
Paruyr Shahbazyan
Paruyr Shahbazyan
Founder
Last Updated: Sep 12, 2024, 10:34 AM

Betting on Basketball

NBA betting today is a fundamental part of North American sports betting. The league is globally popular and has an almost non-stop schedule that runs through the regular season, playoffs, and the NBA finals. As a result, there are usually many betting markets available year-round.

However, the factors that set NBA betting apart go beyond the frequency of games. Rather, they involve the dynamics of each game. For instance, in the regular season, many games serve as tests for bettors in addition to the competing teams. That means there is usually enough time to assess strategies and improve ahead of the playoffs. During the NBA playoffs, the stakes are typically higher as the outcome of the games means a chance to move on to the next round and potentially to the NBA Finals.

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Best Practices for Responsible NBA Betting in the USA

When it comes to betting on the NBA, practicing responsible gambling is crucial. The NBA season is long, with over 1,200 regular-season games, playoffs, and finals. This volume presents both opportunities and risks for bettors. Here are some of the best practices to ensure you're betting responsibly:

1. Set a Strict Budget
Betting on the NBA can be enticing, especially with daily games during the season. Always set a budget before the season starts or before individual games. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and avoid chasing losses by increasing your stakes.
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Consistency in budgeting is key. Set limits based on what you can afford, not on how much you think you can win.
2. Research Player Performances
The performance of NBA players can vary greatly based on numerous factors—injuries, rest days, team rotations, etc. Make sure to stay informed about player status and how different lineups perform together. Avoid betting solely on superstar players or big-name teams without checking injury reports or back-to-back game schedules.
Example
Betting on the Golden State Warriors without checking if Steph Curry is rested or injured could lead to unexpected losses.
3. Understand the Influence of Back-to-Back Games
NBA teams often play consecutive games with little rest, which can dramatically affect player performance and game outcomes. Teams on a back-to-back are more likely to underperform, especially if they travel. Factor this into your betting strategy, and avoid overestimating a team’s performance during a packed schedule.
 
4. Utilize Analytics and Advanced Statistics
The NBA has a wealth of advanced statistics, such as PER (Player Efficiency Rating), defensive ratings, and true shooting percentages. These can provide a deeper insight into how a team or player is performing beyond the basic stats like points and rebounds. Leveraging this data helps you make more informed decisions instead of relying purely on intuition.
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Betting with a data-driven approach will often yield better long-term results than betting based on gut feelings.
5. Beware of “Sure Bets”
No bet is a sure thing, even in the NBA. Underdogs frequently upset favorites, especially during the regular season. Betting large sums on heavy favorites to secure small gains can lead to large losses over time if just one result goes against expectations.
 
6. Avoid Emotional Betting
Whether you're a die-hard Lakers fan or you love seeing underdog teams win, it’s essential to keep emotion out of betting. Betting on your favorite team to win every game is not a sustainable or responsible strategy. Look at the data, and be willing to bet against your favorite team if that’s where the value is.

Examples from the NBA

  • 2019 NBA Finals: When the Golden State Warriors faced the Toronto Raptors, many bettors heavily favored the Warriors due to their star-studded lineup. However, injuries to key players like Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson shifted the series dramatically. Those who followed injury reports and made data-informed bets were better positioned to make smarter decisions.
  • 2021 Milwaukee Bucks Championship Run: Many fans underestimated the Bucks during the 2021 playoffs, particularly when they fell behind in multiple series. However, bettors who kept their emotions in check and analyzed how the Bucks were playing in key matchups against the Nets and Suns found significant value in betting on their comeback.

In the NBA, even the smallest detail—like a star player sitting out due to injury or rest—can change the outcome of a game. Always do your homework.

Understanding How To Read NBA Odds

Odds formats vary by region, here are the three primary types you might encounter in the context of NBA betting:

American Odds Format

Predominantly used in the United States, American odds feature a negative (-) sign for favorites and a positive (+) sign for underdogs.

Example: Calculating American Odds Payouts

For an NBA game, consider these odds:

  • Miami Heat: -220
  • Charlotte Hornets: +180

Here, the Heat at -220 are the favorites, meaning a bet of $220 is needed to win $100 in profit. The Hornets at +180 are the underdogs, offering a $180 profit on a $100 bet if they win. This discrepancy reflects the sportsbook's commission or juice.

Decimal Odds Format

Favored in regions like Canada, Europe, and Australia, decimal odds indicate the total return for each dollar bet.

Example: Calculating Decimal Odds Payouts

For an NBA game, the odds might be:

  • Golden State Warriors: 2.80
  • Cleveland Cavaliers: 1.45

A $100 bet on the Warriors would return $280, a profit of $180, while the same bet on the Cavaliers would yield a total of $145, or a $45 profit.

Fractional Odds Format

Used in the UK and Ireland, fractional odds express the amount of profit relative to the stake.

Example: Calculating Fractional Odds Payouts

For an NBA match, consider:

  • Chicago Bulls: 9/4
  • Dallas Mavericks: 4/7

Betting $4 on the Bulls would return $9 in profit, making your total return $13. A $7 bet on the Mavericks would net $4 in profit, totaling $11 in return. This format highlights the underdogs and favorites by the potential returns on bets.

Live In-Play Betting on NBA Games

Engaging with NBA Games Through In Play Betting

Sportsbooks now feature the capability for gamblers to engage with NBA games through real-time betting options. This requires bettors to not only watch the games attentively but also to understand the nuances and shifts that occur during play. Observing team dynamics, player stamina, and strategic adjustments is vital for making informed bets as the game progresses.

Understanding the Mechanics of Live Wagering

As an NBA match unfolds, live wagering odds are dynamically updated to reflect the ongoing action. These adjustments are calculated through sophisticated models that consider a myriad of variables, including scoring runs, defensive strategies, and significant player performances or setbacks. Bettors who closely follow the match and can interpret these shifts stand to gain by identifying value bets based on real-time insights.

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FAQs

How to Bet on the NBA

How Does NBA Sports Betting Work?

NBA sports betting allows you to place bets on various outcomes within basketball games. Common bets include point spreads, moneylines, and totals. Point spreads indicate the predicted score difference between teams, while moneyline shows the odds for a team to win outright. Totals involve predicting whether the combined score will be above or below a set number.

A Comprehensive Guide for US Sports Bettors

Is it Legal to Bet on NBA Games In the US?

The legality of NBA sports betting varies from one state to another. Some states have legalized and regulated sports betting, allowing licensed operators to offer services. So, it's crucial to check local laws to ensure compliance. Use reputable and legal sportsbooks to provide a fair and secure betting environment.

What are Player Prop Bets in NBA Sports Betting?

Player prop bets focus on individual player performances rather than the overall outcome of the game. Examples include predicting the number of points, rebounds, or assists a specific player will achieve.

Understanding NBA Odds: An Overview of Different Formats

How Do Odds Work in NBA Sports Betting?

In NBA sports betting, odds are presented in different formats, such as fractional, decimal, or moneyline. Understanding odds is crucial for calculating potential winnings. For example, +200 odds mean a $100 bet could win $200, while -150 odds indicate that a bet of $150 is needed to win $100.

Live In-Play Betting on NBA Games

Can I Bet on Live NBA Games?

Yes, live betting on NBA games allows you to place bets during the game. Based on the game's progress, odds and available markets can change in real-time. This dynamic betting style often demands that you make quick decisions. 

Strategies for Successful NBA Betting

Are there Strategies to Improve NBA Sports Betting Success?

Successful NBA sports betting often involves research and staying informed about team news, injuries, and performance trends. Managing your bankroll wisely, diversifying bets, and avoiding emotional decisions are also essential. Additionally, you can develop a systematic approach through statistical analysis and stay disciplined when betting on NBA games.

<p>With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology and startups Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work is about providing clear factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence based and accessible.</p><p>At RG Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and responsible gambling that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.</p>
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Meet our Authors

Paruyr Shahbazyan started his business career in 2000 as an entrepreneur. Over 13 years he learned business and leadership, so he laid the foundation for his career.

In 2013 Paruyr entered the sports and betting industry as the founder and president of Bookmaker Rating. This online media he led until 2020. The platform was focused on in-depth analysis and insights in sports betting and got a reputation for quality content.

In 2022 Paruyr co-founded Azuro, decentralized betting protocol. This shows his commitment to technology in the sports betting space. Through all these experiences Paruyr has been shaping and influencing the betting industry, setting new trends and standards.

Innovation in sportsbetting comes from a deep understanding of both technology and the human element of sports.

Strategic Vision

Paruyr's vision is to revolutionize the sports betting industry through the integration of technology. He sees the future of betting as a blend of traditional sports knowledge with innovative tech solutions, like decentralized protocols, to enhance user experience and fairness. His aim is to create platforms that are not only user-friendly but also uphold the highest standards of ethical betting, contributing to a more responsible and enjoyable betting culture.

Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief

With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology and startups Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work is about providing clear factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence based and accessible.

At RG Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and responsible gambling that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.

Cristina Varela Galan
Cristina Varela Galan
Problem Gambling Expert

Cristina used to work as a Psychology Assistant in the Bizkaia Pathological and Risky Gamblers Association. She was also part of a research team in Deusto University, specializing in pathological gambling area. While working there, she managed to develop her own project 

 “Exploring the association between emotional regulation, alexithymia, stressful life events and gambling in adolescent and young adult women”.

Nick Ashbourne
Nick Ashbourne
Senior Writer

Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game back in 1998, and he's written about them professionally since 2014.

Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports, and his sports betting expertise has grown since its legalization in Ontario in 2022. 

Between 2022 and 2023 he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets, and in 2024 he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the RG team.

Sergey Demidov
Sergey Demidov
Head of News Department

Sergey has been in sports journalism since 2007 as a reporter, editor, and manager. He has covered the Olympic Games, soccer World Cups, the World Cup of Hockey in 2016, the European championships, the Stanley Cup Finals, IOC events, and many others. Sergey interviewed the sport's greatest athletes, coaches, and executives. Since 2016, he has been an Independent Senior Editor of NHL.com/ru.

Anna Kravtcova
Anna Kravtcova
Problem Gambling Expert

Ph.D. in organizational psychology, an internationally certified psychologist (EuroPsy 2022, Cognitive behavioural therapy of mindfulness 2020, International Society for Emotional Intelligence 2017, Russian Psychological society 2014, American Psychological Association(Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychologist) 2011), speaker of many international conferences (USA, Brazil, Portugal, Czech Republic, Russia, etc.). TEDx speaker.

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