Mastering NFL Point Spread Betting

13 min read
Sep 17, 2024, 7:48 AM
Author
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief
Last Updated: Dec 18, 2024, 3:37 PM

Introduction to NFL Point Spread Betting

Point spread betting is recognized as the most popular method for wagering on NFL games, offering an alternative to traditional win-or-lose bets. Instead of simply picking which team will win, bettors can engage with football odds by predicting how many points a team will win or lose by.

This type of betting adds a layer of strategy, making National Football League (NFL) betting odds more dynamic as it balances out the strengths and weaknesses of teams.

Example of an NFL Point Spread Bet

The Kansas City Chiefs are -6.5 favorites against the Buffalo Bills (+6.5). Let's say the odds are -110, meaning you must bet $110 to win $100.

  • If you bet $110 on the Chiefs (-6.5):
    The Chiefs need to win by 7 or more points for you to win $100.
    • Chiefs 30, Bills 20 → You win $100 profit (your total payout is $210, including your original bet).
  • If you bet $110 on the Bills (+6.5):
    The Bills must win outright or lose by 6 points or fewer for you to win $100.
    • Chiefs 28, Bills 24 → You win $100 profit (total payout: $210).
If the Chiefs win by fewer than 7, or the Bills win outright, the bet on the Bills cashes.

What Are NFL Spread Bets

In points spread betting, NFL sportsbooks establish a margin—referred to as the point spread—to level the playing field between two teams, giving the underdog a perceived advantage while slightly disadvantaging the favorite. 

This system makes football spread betting interesting, giving bettors more options. For instance, consider a matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals, where the point spread might look something like this:

TeamPoint SpreadOddsPotential Payout on $110 Bet
Buffalo Bills-4.5-110$100
Cincinnati Bengals+4.5-110$100

In this scenario, if you're betting on the Bills, they must win the game by more than 4.5 points for your bet to pay out. On the flip side, if you place your wager on the Bengals, they can lose by up to 4.5 points or win outright for you to win the bet.

The accompanying betting odds, such as -110, indicate the payout structure. In this example, to potentially win $100, you would need to wager $110. 

Key Factors Influencing NFL Point Spreads

NFL point spreads are not randomly assigned; they are meticulously crafted by NFL sportsbooks, balancing statistical analysis, team dynamics, and market trends. Below are the most critical factors influencing NFL spreads:

Influencing FactorImpact on Spread
Home Field Advantage+1.5-2 points typically for the home team
InjuriesSpread adjusts based on key player absences
Public PerceptionPopular teams may have tighter spreads
Recent Performance TrendsDominant teams may see larger spreads
Weather & Venue FactorsConditions can tighten spreads or adjust totals

1. Home Field Advantage

According to PointsBet trading director Jay Croucher, a team playing on their home turf typically receives a 1.5-2-point advantage in the point spread, reflecting crowd support, travel fatigue for the visiting team, and familiarity with the field.

2. Injury Reports

Key player injuries heavily influence point spreads. For example, when Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals was sidelined in the 2024 regular season, sportsbooks adjusted the spread for the Bengals’ next game from +2.5 to +6. The absence of a star quarterback or key defensive player significantly shifts betting lines, offering sports bettors an opportunity to capitalize on updated spread bets.

3. Public Perception and Betting Action

Public sentiment often disrupts NFL betting odds. In the past, teams like the Dallas Cowboys or the New England Patriots frequently saw tighter spreads due to their popularity, regardless of recent performance.

4. Recent Performance Trends

Teams performing exceptionally well or poorly influence how spreads are set. For example, the Buffalo Bills’ final five-game winning streak in 2023 saw their point spreads inflate, moving from -3 to -9 in just two weeks. On the other hand, the New England Patriots' underwhelming 2024 NFL season has resulted in more favorable spreads for bettors willing to back them as underdogs.

5. Weather Conditions and Venue Factors

Weather impacts point spreads as well, especially for outdoor games. In a December 2023 game between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, strong winds and freezing temperatures caused the total points line to drop by 5 points, and the Packers’ spread tightened from -4.5 to -3 as bettors factored in unpredictable conditions affecting the final score.

NFL Spread Betting Strategies

Now that you understand the basics of point spread betting, it's time to move into some well-known NFL spread bet strategies:

1. Shopping for the Best Line

Many sportsbooks offer slightly different point spreads for the same game. For example, going into Week 15 of the NFL regular season, here are the odds from three popular NFL sportsbooks:

GameSportsbookOddsPotential Payout on $100 Wager
Chiefs vs. BrownsESPN Bet-4.5 (-110)
+4.5 (-110)
$90.91
$90.91
BetMGM-4(-110)
+4(-110)
$90.91
$90.91
FanDuel-4.5(-105)
+4.5(-115)
$95.24
$86.96

2. Betting on Underdogs in Divisional Matchups

Divisional games tend to be more competitive due to the familiarity between the teams in the same division. In 2024, a game between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys saw the Cowboys favored by 9 points. However, divisional matchups are often closer, and the Giants covered the spread, losing by only 5 points.

3. Hedging Bets

If you have a wager on a team to cover the spread, you might hedge your bet by placing a smaller bet on the other team's money line to mitigate potential losses.

4. NFL Against the Spread (ATS) Betting

ATS betting, or against the spread, involves wagering how teams perform relative to the point spread rather than just betting on wins and losses. Some teams consistently perform well against the spread, even when they lose games.

The top 10 teams against the spread from the last 5 seasons.

Top 10 NFL ATS Records (Last 5 Years): Lions Dominate with 61% Cover Rate.

Case Study: Kansas City Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Performance (12/25/2023–12/8/2024)

The Kansas City Chiefs demonstrated a 10-9-1 record against the spread (ATS) over 20 NFL games. This record shows the team’s mixed consistency in covering point spreads. Because of the Chiefs' perceived success, most sportsbooks set harder spreads for Kansas City due to their strong reputation and Super Bowl contender status. While they succeeded in covering the spread in some evenly matched NFL games, particularly as underdogs, they struggled with larger spreads against weaker teams.

Key Insights:

  • Underdog Success: The Chiefs excelled when positioned as underdogs, covering spreads in games against tougher competition, such as the Bills (1/21/2024) and the 49ers (10/20/2024).
  • Struggles with Large Spreads: In games where they were heavily favored (e.g., -10.5 vs. Panthers, -13.5 vs. Raiders), they often failed to cover, even though they won outright.
  • Close Margins: The Chiefs had several close ATS decisions, including a push against the Chargers (9/29/2024).
  • Low-Scoring Trends: With a relatively high number of games hitting the under, their defense often kept games within reach.

Common NFL Point Spread Betting Mistakes

Even experienced bettors can fall into traps when betting on NFL point spreads. These mistakes can cost you big time. Here are the most common pitfalls, why they matter, and examples from recent NFL seasons:

1. Ignoring Key Numbers

Key numbers are important in point spread betting because certain scoring margins (3, 7, 10) are the most common outcomes in NFL games because of the scoring structure of touchdowns, field goals, and extra points.

  • Why It Matters:
    • Many NFL games end with a margin of victory of 3 or 7 points because those are the most common scoring plays (field goals and touchdowns).
    • Ignoring key numbers can cause you to lose on spreads just above or below those numbers.
  • Example:
    • In the 2021 AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs were -7 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The game ended with the Bengals losing by 3 points in overtime. Bettors who bet the Chiefs at -7 pushed (no win or loss), but those who ignored line movement and bet -7.5 lost.
A chart showing the NFL margin of victory by points

Understanding that most NFL games margin of victory is typically 3 and 7 can help inform your bets

2. Emotional Betting

Betting on your favorite team rather than objective analysis is a common mistake. This leads to biased decision-making, especially when your favorite team is involved.

  • Why It Matters:
    • Emotionally driven bets ignore important data like injuries, team matchups, and trends.
    • Bettors who always back their favorite team overestimate their chances, especially against stronger opponents or in tough situations.
  • Example:
    • In the 2022 regular season, the Green Bay Packers were +4 underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. Many Packers fans bet on their team out of loyalty even though the Bills dominated both sides of the ball. The Bills won 27-17 and covered the spread easily.
    • Bettors should take emotion out of their betting. Base wagers on data like win/loss records, injury reports, and historical trends, not personal allegiance.

3. Overvaluing Favorites

Favorites get heavy public betting, especially when perceived as good teams. But large spreads (10 or more) are notoriously tough to cover, especially in divisional games where the playing field is more even.

  • Why It Matters:
    • Large spreads inflate public expectations but ignore game context, matchups, and backdoor covers (when the underdog scores late to cover the spread even though they lose the game).
    • Divisional games are the most unpredictable because teams see each other twice a season and are more familiar with each other’s schemes.
  • Example:
    • In the 2021 NFL season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were -11.5 against the Washington Football Team in Week 10. Despite Tampa being a Super Bowl contender, Washington covered the spread in a 29-19 upset win. Bettors who overvalued Tampa’s dominance ignored Washington’s strong defense and motivation in a big game.
    • Be wary of double-digit spreads. Look at injuries, divisional rivalries, and the underdog’s recent form before you bet.

Other Point Spread Considerations

  • Not Accounting for Line Movement
    • Lines move based on public betting and injury news. Sharp bettors bet early to get the best number before the market adjusts.
    • Example: A spread that opens at -3 may move to -4.5 if the public pounds the favorite. Betting after the line moves reduces value and increases risk.
  • Not Considering Weather
    • Extreme weather (heavy wind, rain, or snow) can impact NFL totals and spreads. Underdogs in bad weather tend to perform better as the offense is limited.
    • Example: In the 2020 Week 8 game between the Raiders and Browns, the strong winds and rain led to a 16-6 Raiders win, making the +2.5 underdog bet on the Raiders profitable.

Avoiding Mistakes

  • Know the Key Numbers: Focus on 3, 7, and 10. Don’t bet on numbers that miss those unless you find value.
  • Avoid Emotional Betting: Use data to remove bias and make objective decisions.
  • Be Wary of Big Spreads: Favorites with 10 or more points often don’t cover, especially in divisional games or against strong defenses.
  • Watch Line Movement: Bet early when you can to get the best number, especially around key numbers.
  • Consider Game Context: Look at team form, injuries, weather, and divisional rivalries before you bet.

How to Bet on the NFL Points Spread

Betting on the NFL point spread is a straightforward process:

  1. Choose a Licensed Sportsbook: Select a licensed online sportsbook that you have vetted by reading user reviews, comparing odds, and assessing the platform.
  2. Choose Your Game: Select an NFL game—let’s say the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers.
  3. Understand the Spread: If the spread is set at Eagles -6.5, this means they must win by at least seven points for your bet to win.
  4. Place Your Bet: If you believe the Eagles will win by more than 6.5 points, you bet on them to cover the spread. If you think the Steelers will keep it closer, bet on the Steelers +6.5.
  5. Know the Odds: Most point spreads come with American odds, such as -110. This means you'd bet $110 to win $100.
  6. Check the Results: Your bet is successful if the team covers the spread—either by winning by more points or losing by fewer points than the spread.

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FAQs on NFL Point Spread Betting

Understanding the Basics of NFL Spread Betting

What is NFL spread betting?

NFL spread betting is a method of wagering on football games where the focus is on the margin of victory rather than simply betting on which team will win the game outright. Sportsbooks assign a point spread to balance the perceived strengths of two teams.

How do point spreads work in NFL betting?

Point spreads work by assigning a handicap to one team (the favorite) and an advantage to the other team (the underdog). For example, if the NFL spread is -6.5, the favorite must win by seven or more points for the bet to win. If the underdog loses by six points or fewer—or wins the game outright—you win the bet.

Why do sportsbooks use half points in spreads?

Half points, also known as the “hook,” are used to eliminate ties or "pushes" in betting lines. For example, if the spread is -3.5, a favorite must win by four or more points for the bet to win. Adding half a point ensures a clear win or loss for the bet.

What is the difference between a spread bet and a moneyline bet?

A spread bet involves wagering on the margin of victory, while a moneyline bet is simply betting on which team will win the game outright. Spread bets are often more strategic and involve additional research into betting spreads.

Factors That Influence NFL Spread Betting

How do sportsbooks calculate NFL spreads?

NFL spreads are based on factors such as team performance, injuries, home-field advantage, weather conditions, and public sentiment. For instance, if breaking news reveals a star quarterback's injury, the spread odds will likely adjust.

Why do betting spreads move during the week?

Betting spreads can shift based on sharp money bets, public betting trends, or updated injury reports. For example, if most major online sportsbooks notice heavy action on one side, they adjust the spread to balance the betting perspective.

What role does home field advantage play in football betting lines?

Home-field advantage often adds one or two points to the spread for the home team. This reflects travel fatigue for the away team and the familiarity of playing on home turf.

Strategies for Successful Spread Betting

What are the best strategies for successful spread betting?

To succeed in spread betting, consider these strategies:

  • Shop for the best line: Compare NFL spreads across most major online sportsbooks to find more attractive odds.
  • Focus on key numbers: Common final margins in football spreads are three, seven, and ten points. Avoid betting on lines just above or below these numbers.
  • Monitor injuries and weather: Late-breaking news can shift betting spreads dramatically, creating opportunities for value bets.
  • Consider alternate spreads: These offer adjusted point spreads with different payouts, allowing for more tailored betting options.
How does betting with alternate spreads work?

Alternate spreads adjust the point spread in exchange for higher or lower payouts. For example, moving a spread from -6.5 to -3.5 might lower your winnings but increase the likelihood of a successful bet.

Common Questions About Placing Spread Bets

How do I place a spread bet?

Placing a spread bet is simple:

  • Choose a football game and review the betting lines.
  • Select the team you believe will cover the spread.
  • Add the bet to your bet slip and confirm the amount of your money bet.
  • Monitor the final margin to see if your bet wins.
What happens if my team loses but covers the spread?

If your team loses by fewer points than the spread, your bet wins. For example, if the spread is +4.5 and your team loses by four points, you still win the spread bet.

How do half points impact my bets?

Half points prevent ties in betting spreads. For example, if the spread is -3.5, a team must win by four or more points for the bet to win, ensuring there’s no push.

Advanced Insights for NFL Spread Betting

What is the significance of scoring a half point in NFL betting?

Scoring half a point can make the difference between winning and losing a bet. Sharp bettors often analyze how key numbers like three or seven align with spreads to determine value bets.

What should I look for in college football spreads versus NFL spreads?

College football spreads tend to be wider due to the disparity in team quality. In contrast, NFL spreads are tighter because of the league's parity and the even competition between teams.

What are key mistakes to avoid in football spreads betting?

Avoid these common pitfalls:

  • Betting emotionally on your favorite team instead of objectively analyzing the betting lines.
  • Ignoring line movement, which could signal important shifts in public sentiment or insider knowledge.
  • Overvaluing favorites with large NFL spreads, as underdogs often perform well against inflated betting lines.

Miscellaneous Questions

Can I bet on football spreads early in the week?

Yes, early betting often provides better value before public action shifts the spread. However, waiting for late-breaking news can also offer insights into final betting lines.

How does a team’s performance ATS (Against the Spread) help bettors?

ATS performance shows how often a team covers the spread, providing valuable insight into their consistency. For example, a team that frequently covers as an underdog may be undervalued in future games.

Can I combine spread bets with other wagers?

Yes, you can combine spread bets with moneyline bets or over/under totals in parlays to increase potential payouts. However, these combinations also increase risk.

References and Version History

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Written By
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Checked By
Nick Ashbourne
<p>With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups, Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work provides clear, factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research, so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence-based, and accessible.</p><p>At RG, Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction, RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and sports entertainment that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go-to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.</p>
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