Understanding Moneyline Bets
Moneyline bets are a fundamental type of wager in sports betting, particularly popular in NFL betting.
In a moneyline bet, sports bettors simply choose which team they believe will win the game outright.
Unlike spread bets, the margin of victory is irrelevant in moneyline betting.
Tie Games and Moneyline Bets
In the NFL, tie games are a rarer occurrence than in other sports but they do happen. If you bet moneyline and it's a tie, NFL wagers enter a unique situation for bettors and sportsbooks alike.
If you bet on the moneyline and there's a tie, most sportsbooks will grade the bet as a push. This means that the wager amount is returned to the bettor, effectively canceling the bet as if it never happened.
It's important to note that ties are not a common outcome in the NFL. Most games are decided in regulation time or overtime, leading to a clear winner.
However, bettors should be aware of the possibility of a tie and understand how it affects their wagers.
Two-Way Moneylines in NFL Betting
When it comes to NFL betting, the standard moneyline bet is typically a two-way moneyline.
This type of bet offers two possible outcomes: either Team A wins or Team B wins. Unlike some other sports where draws are more common, NFL games are usually played until a winner is determined, even if it requires overtime.
The two-way moneyline simplifies betting by eliminating the possibility of a tie as a separate betting option.
In the rare event of a tie after overtime, the bet is typically called a push, and the wager amount is returned to the bettor.
This low likelihood of draws is why sportsbooks generally offer two-way moneylines for NFL games, in contrast to sports like soccer where three-way moneylines (including a draw option) are more common.
Key Differences Between Moneyline and Spread Bets
While moneyline bets focus solely on picking the outright winner, spread bets introduce a point handicap to level the playing field between favorites and underdogs.
In spread betting, the favorite must win by more than the specified point spread, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread or win outright.
Moneyline betting offers a more straightforward approach, as bettors only need to predict which team will win. However, this simplicity often comes with less favorable odds, especially when betting on heavy favorites.
Parlay Implications
Tie games can have significant implications for parlay bets (whether they are same-game or multi-event) that include moneyline selections.
In a parlay, multiple bets are combined into a single wager, with all selections needing to win for the parlay to pay out.
When a tie occurs in one leg of a parlay, that selection is typically graded as a push and removed from the parlay. The remaining selections continue as a smaller parlay with adjusted odds.
For example, if a four-team parlay includes a game that ends in a tie, it effectively becomes a three-team parlay.
It's crucial for bettors to understand how their chosen sportsbook handles ties in parlays, as policies may vary.
Some sportsbooks may grade the entire parlay as a loss if any selection results in a tie, while others may reduce it and continue with the remaining selections.
Calculating Odds and Making Informed Decisions
When dealing with moneyline bets, understanding how to calculate potential profits is essential for making informed decisions.
American odds, the standard format in NFL betting, can be converted to implied probabilities to better assess the value of a bet.
For positive odds (underdogs), the calculation is: 100 / (odds + 100) = implied probability For negative odds (favorites), it's: |odds| / (|odds| + 100) = implied probability
Example: If the Kansas City Chiefs are listed at -150, their implied probability of winning is 60% (150 / (150 + 100) = 0.6).
Bettors should compare these implied probabilities with their own assessment of the teams' chances to identify potential value bets.
It's also important to consider factors such as injuries, team form, and head-to-head records when making moneyline bets.
Betting Strategies for Moneyline Bets
Developing a sound strategy for moneyline betting can help improve long-term profitability.
One approach is to focus on underdogs with positive odds, as these bets offer the potential for larger profits relative to the wager amount.
Another strategy involves betting on slight favorites where the odds aren't too prohibitive. This can provide a balance between the likelihood of winning and the potential profit.
It's also worth noting that some bettors prefer to avoid moneyline bets on heavy favorites, as the potential profit may not justify the risk involved.
In such cases, spread betting or other markets may offer more appealing options.
Conclusion
Understanding how moneyline bets work in the NFL, particularly in the rare event of a tie game, is crucial for sports bettors. While ties are uncommon, knowing how they affect wagers can help bettors make more informed decisions and avoid potential confusion.
Moneyline betting offers a straightforward way to wager on NFL games, focusing solely on picking the outright winner. However, bettors should always consider the odds, implied probabilities, and various factors that can influence the game's outcome before placing their bets.
With careful analysis and a solid understanding of how moneyline bets work, including the possibility of ties, you can enhance your NFL betting experience.
Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game back in 1998, and he's written about them professionally since 2014.
Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports, and his sports betting expertise has grown since its legalization in Ontario in 2022.
Between 2022 and 2023 he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets, and in 2024 he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the Responsible Gambling team.
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Meet our Authors
Paruyr Shahbazyan
Paruyr Shahbazyan began his business career in 2000 as a private entrepreneur. Over thirteen years, he developed a deep understanding for business and leadership, laying a solid foundation for his professional journey.
In 2013, Paruyr stepped into the sports and betting industry as the founder and president of Bookmaker Rating. This online mass media platform, which he led until 2020, focused on providing in-depth analysis and insights in sports betting, earning a reputation for its quality content.
Continuing his innovative approach in 2022, Paruyr co-founded Azuro, a decentralized betting protocol. This venture showcases his dedication to integrating advanced technology in the evolving landscape of sports betting. Through these diverse experiences, Paruyr has continuously influenced and shaped the betting industry, driving new trends and setting high standards.
Experience | Year |
Engaged in private entrepreneurship | 2000-2013 |
Founder and President at Bookmaker Rating, an online platform focused on sports and betting | 2013-2020 |
Co-founder at Azuro, a decentralized betting protocol | 2022 |
"Innovation in sportsbetting comes from a deep understanding of both technology and the human element of sports."
- Paruyr Shahbazyan, Founder, RG
Principles and Ethics
Paruyr Shahbazyan's core beliefs lie in the power of informed decision-making and integrity in the betting industry. He understands that the foundation of successful betting is not just about odds and predictions, but also about the trust and reliability of the information provided. Paruyr advocates for a betting environment where transparency and knowledge are paramount, ensuring that bettors are well-equipped with accurate data and insights.
Strategic Vision
Paruyr's vision is to revolutionize the sports betting industry through the integration of technology. He sees the future of betting as a blend of traditional sports knowledge with innovative tech solutions, like decentralized protocols, to enhance user experience and fairness. His aim is to create platforms that are not only user-friendly but also uphold the highest standards of ethical betting, contributing to a more responsible and enjoyable betting culture.
Future Perspectives
Looking towards the future, Paruyr envisions a betting landscape that is more inclusive, technologically advanced, and globally connected. He anticipates a significant shift towards more decentralized and transparent betting systems, driven by blockchain technology. Paruyr is committed to being at the forefront of this change, continuously exploring new possibilities and innovations that can redefine what it means to engage in sports betting in a digital world. His focus is on building systems that prioritize user empowerment, fairness, and the global growth of the sports betting community.
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol has over 20 years of experience in writing for diverse industries including sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups. As the Editor-in-Chief at RG.org, Sol brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the role, focusing on delivering transparent, evidence-based content grounded in thorough research. Sol's mission is to empower readers to enjoy gambling responsibly and make informed decisions, enhancing their overall experience through insightful and engaging content. Under Sol's leadership, RG.org prioritizes the highest standards of integrity and reliability, ensuring that all information provided is accurate and trustworthy. Sol's dedication to transparency and research-based writing helps create a responsible gambling environment where readers can truly benefit from the content. This commitment to excellence has positioned RG.org as a leading source of information in the gambling industry.
Experience:
- Over 20 years in writing and editing across multiple industries
- Former head of regional innovation at BMO Finanacial Group
- Senior Writer, Online Casino Reports
Cristina Varela Galan
Cristina used to work as a Psychology Assistant in the Bizkaia Pathological and Risky Gamblers Association. She was also part of a research team in Deusto University, specializing in pathological gambling area. While working there, she managed to develop her own project
“Exploring the association between emotional regulation, alexithymia, stressful life events and gambling in adolescent and young adult women”.
Nick Ashbourne
Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game back in 1998, and he's written about them professionally since 2014.
Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports, and his sports betting expertise has grown since its legalization in Ontario in 2022.
Between 2022 and 2023 he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets, and in 2024 he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the Responsible Gambling team.
Sergey Demidov
Sergey has been in sports journalism since 2007 as a reporter, editor, and manager. He has covered the Olympic Games, soccer World Cups, the World Cup of Hockey in 2016, the European championships, the Stanley Cup Finals, IOC events, and many others. Sergey interviewed the sport's greatest athletes, coaches, and executives. Since 2016, he has been an Independent Senior Editor of NHL.com/ru.
Anna Kravtcova
Ph.D. in organizational psychology, an internationally certified psychologist (EuroPsy 2022, Cognitive behavioural therapy of mindfulness 2020, International Society for Emotional Intelligence 2017, Russian Psychological society 2014, American Psychological Association(Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychologist) 2011), speaker of many international conferences (USA, Brazil, Portugal, Czech Republic, Russia, etc.). TEDx speaker.