Top NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Favorites, Dark Horses, and Long Shots

Zach Edey in the Grizzlies’ lineup for the 1st time since his impressive Summer League debut on July 8 in Salt Lake City. Credit: NBA.com

The race for the NBA Rookie of the Year is always thrilling, with a mix of top draft picks and surprise performers vying for the award. As the 2024-25 NBA season approaches, certain players have emerged as favorites for the rookie of the year title. Zach Edey of the Grizzlies, Reed Shephard of the Houston Rockets, and Zaccharie Risacher of the Atlanta Hawks are currently leading the NBA odds board. These players have shown exceptional promise in the summer league and are expected to carry that momentum into the regular season.

Zach Edey, with his unique skill set, has been a standout in the NBA draft. Bronny James, following in the footsteps of his legendary father Lebron James, has also generated significant buzz albeit very much a longshot. Alexandre Sarr, with his all-around game, is another strong contender. These players not only have the talent but also the opportunity to make an immediate impact, which is crucial for winning the honors.

Key Favorites:

• Zach Edey - Memphis Grizzlies
• Zaccharie Risacher - Atlanta Hawks
• Alexandre Sarr - Washington Wizards

Dark Horse Candidates

While the favorites are often in the spotlight, dark horse candidates can surprise everyone. Players like Matas Buzelis, Reed Sheppard, and Dalton Knecht might not have the same hype as the top picks, but they possess the talent to compete for the RoY award. Their performance in the summer league and training camps will be crucial in determining their odds.

Matas Buzelis has shown flashes of brilliance, and Reed Sheppard's versatility makes him a player to watch. Dalton Knecht's scoring ability also puts him in the mix. These players might not have the same immediate recognition, but their potential to shine in the NBA is significant.

Notable Dark Horses:

• Matas Buzelis - Chicago Bulls
• Reed Sheppard - Houston Rockets
• Dalton Knecht - Los Angeles Lakers

Long Shot Contenders

• Rob Dillingham - Minnesota Timberwolves
• Donovan Clingan - Portland Trailblazers
• Stephon Castle - San Antonio Spurs

Long shot contenders often bring excitement to the NBA season. Players like Rob Dillingham, Donovan Clingan, and Stephon Castle might not be on everyone’s radar, but their potential to win the rookie of the year shouldn’t be overlooked. Historically, players with lower odds have made significant impacts and sometimes even won the award.

Dillangham's presence, Donovan Clingan's defensive prowess, and Stephon Castle's playmaking abilities make them intriguing prospects. Betting on these long shots can be risky, but the rewards are substantial if they perform well throughout the regular season.

Winning the NBA RoY requires consistency, impact, and sometimes, a bit of luck. Players need to perform well throughout the entire season and contribute significantly to their team. Key factors include minutes played, scoring, assists, rebounds, and overall influence on games. Players like Bronny James, aiming to be the first father-son duo to win major NBA honors, must excel in these areas.

NBA Rookie of the Year Winners: A Historical Perspective

Looking back at NBA history on who won Rookie of the Year winners, like Ben Simmons and Malcolm Brogdon, provides valuable insights. These players often set the tone for their careers with impactful rookie seasons.

Historically, several players have stood out and won RoY honors due to their outstanding performances:

• 2024: Victor Wembanyama - San Antonio Spurs
• 2023: Paolo Banchero - Orlando Magic
• 2022: Cade Cunningham - Detroit Pistons
• 2021: LaMelo Ball - Charlotte Hornets
• 2020: Ja Morant - Memphis Grizzlies
• 2019: Luka Doncic - Dallas Mavericks
• 2018: Ben Simmons - Philadelphia 76ers
• 2017: Malcolm Brogdon - Milwaukee Bucks
• 2016: Karl-Anthony Towns - Minnesota Timberwolves
• 2015: Andrew Wiggins - Minnesota Timberwolves
• 2014: Michael Carter-Williams - Philadelphia 76ers

These players demonstrated exceptional skills and maintained high levels of performance throughout their rookie seasons, significantly impacting their team's success.

Key Factors for Winning

To win the NBA Rookie of the Year award, a player must excel in several areas:

• Consistency: Performing at a high level throughout the entire season.
• Impact: Contributing significantly to the team's success.
• Minutes Played: Getting substantial playing time to showcase their skills.
• Scoring: Being a top scorer among rookies.
• Assists and Rebounds: Contributing in multiple aspects.

Players like Chris Paul, who have had illustrious careers, started by making significant impacts in their rookie years. Aspiring rookie of the year candidates can look at these past winners for inspiration and aim to replicate their success. Last year's winner Victor Wembanyama is a great example of that.

Odds and Betting

When considering the odds to win the rookie of the year, it's essential to keep an eye on players' performances and how they align with the key factors mentioned above. The year odds can fluctuate based on preseason and early-season performances. Players like Donovan Clingan, Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks, and others from teams like the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves often see their odds shift based on their contributions to their teams.

To illustrate this, let's look at some examples of American odds from various US NBA sportsbooks:

• FanDuel: At the start of the season, Zack Edey is listed at +600 to win the RoY, while Reed Shephard is at +700. Alexandre Sarr is at +1000.
• DraftKings: Here, Edey is also at +600, while Shephard is at +700. Sarr is listed at +900.
• BetRivers: Zack Edey, drafted by Memphis Grizzlies is listed at +600 to take home the rookie of the year, while Reed Shephard is at +600. Alexandre Sarr is at +800.