Understanding MLB Wild Card Odds; How Does MLB Wildcard Work

14 min read
Jul 11, 2024, 9:08 AM
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Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief
Last Updated: Jan 16, 2025, 3:55 PM

What are MLB wild cards?

Major League Baseball (MLB) wild cards are teams that enter the postseason without winning their division.

Although the league's playoff format has changed significantly over the years, the concept of a wild card was first introduced in 1995 and has been part of the MLB playoffs ever since.

There are currently six wild card teams in every postseason, and they make up half of the field of playoff teams. The winners of MLB's six divisions (AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East, NL Central, NL West) all make the playoffs, and the wild cards are the teams with the three best regular season records in the American League (AL) and National League (NL) that did not win a division title.

Although these clubs have generally produced worse regular-season records than division winners, some have had postseason success, and a few have even won the World Series in the past, as recently as 2023.

This guide will provide a brief history of how wild cards fit into the MLB playoff format, notable wild card teams, and how to interpret wild card odds.

Check out this guide on the RG Game Changers Podcast

History of the Wild Card Format

Wild cards came into use in 1995, with one team that didn't win the National League Division Series or the American League Division Series getting a chance to compete for a World Series title. Since then, the league has tinkered with the format, usually increasing the number of teams that make the postseason.

Here's a summary of the timeline:

1995: MLB wild cards appear for the first time in an eight-team playoff field. The New York Yankees and Colorado Rockies became the first wild cards in MLB history.

2012: A second wild card from the AL and NL is introduced. In the new format, these two wild cards play a single elimination game to determine who will enter the eight-team postseason bracket.

2020: In a pandemic-shortened season, another wild card team has been added. Now, the playoff field is three division winners, three second-place teams, and two additional teams with the next best record. All 16 teams participate in a best-of-three series at the beginning of the postseason to narrow the field to an eight-team bracket.

2021: MLB reinstates the previous rules from 2012.

2022: The current format is introduced with three wild cards from the AL and NL. The best-of-three wild card round includes all of the wild cards and the division winner with the worst record in each league. The top two division winners in the AL and NL receive byes to the division series, which pits those teams against the two survivors of the wild card round.

Wild Card World Series Champions

Wild Card World Series Champions

Since wild card teams entered the playoffs, they have won the World Series eight times. 

Below is a brief summary of the teams who won championships despite failing to win their divisions.

TeamYearWorld Series OpponentWorld Series MVP
Florida Marlins1997Cleveland IndiansLivan Hernandez
Anaheim Angels2002San Franciso GiantsDavid Eckstein
Florida Marlins2003New York YankeesJosh Beckett
Boston Red Sox2004St. Louis CardinalsManny Ramirez
St. Louis Cardinals2011Texas RangersDavid Freese
San Francisco Giants2014Kansas City RoyalsMadison Bumgarner
Washington Nationals2019Houston AstrosStephen Strasburg
Texas Rangers2023Arizona DiamondbacksCorey Seager

Current Structure of the MLB Playoffs

MLB Playoff Format

Credit: MLB.com

The MLB playoffs include 12 teams, six from the AL and the NL. The rules for the four rounds of the postseason differ.

Wild Card Round

This round includes the three wild card teams in each league and the division winner with the worst records. The top two division winners get a bye from these best-of-three series, and the matchups are as follows:

Division winner with the worst record (#3 seed) vs. Wild card team with the worst record (#6 seed)

Wild card team with the best record (#4 seed) vs. Wild card team with the second-best record (#5 seed)

All games are played at the team's home ballpark with the better record.

Divisional Round

The American League Division Series and National League Division Series are best-of-five series that pit the top division winners against the survivors of the previous round. The matchups look like this:

Best division winner (#1 seed) vs. winner of #4 seed vs. #5 seed.

Second-best division winner (#2 seed) vs. winner of #3 seed vs. #6 seed.

It's important to note that the bracket is locked into this alignment regardless of which teams win the previous round. That means that if the #6 seed beats the #3 seed, the #2 seed will face a lower seed than the #1 seed, even though it had a worse regular-season record.

Championship Series

The American League Championship Series and National League Championship Series are best-of-seven battles between the division series' winners. Seeding is no longer relevant because each league has only two surviving clubs.

World Series

The last team standing in the American League faces its counterpart in the National League in a best-of-seven series for the MLB championship.

How Teams Are Seeded

At the beginning of the MLB postseason, the six teams that earn a spot in the American League and National League are each seeded from one to six based on their records and whether they won their division.

The way they are seeded within each league looks like this:

  • No. 1 seed: Best league record
  • No. 2 seed: Second-best division winner
  • No. 3 seed: Third-best division winner
  • No. 4 seed: Best record among wild card teams
  • No. 5 seed: Second-best record among wild card teams
  • No. 6 seed: Third-best record among wild card teams

It's important to note that it does not matter if any of the wild card teams have better records than division winners. MLB teams that did not win their division are never seeded above others that did.

Tiebreakers

In some cases, teams finish the regular season with identical records, and they need to be separated in playoff seeding to determine a division winner or placement within the wild card field.

The tiebreakers are as follows:

  • Head-to-head record
    The first tiebreaker is determined by the games between the two teams. The team that wins the season series is seeded higher.
  • Intradivision Record
    If that's a tie, the teams' records in games against opponents in their division will break the tie. This is true even if they are not in the same division.
  • Interdivision Record
    The next tiebreaker is how the teams compete against teams in their league but outside their division. So, for an NL East team like the Philadelphia Phillies, it would be the record against teams from the NL Central and NL West.
  • Last Half of Intraleague Games
    If the teams are still tied, the next step is to examine their second-half records against teams within their league. These records come from the 81 games of the season, not the All-Star Break.
  • Last Half of Intraleague Games Plus One
    If the fourth tiebreaker does not settle things, then the previous intraleague game on the schedule will be used. If that's a tie, the process is repeated until the tie concludes.

Understanding Wild Card Odds at Online Sportsbooks

When looking at wild card markets at online sportsbooks, you need to know how to interpret odds.

For example, the New York Yankees might have +250 to make the wild card, meaning a $100 bet would win $250 if they do. The New York Mets might have +800 to make the wild card, so a higher payout because they are less likely.

Sportsbooks adjust these odds throughout the season based on team performance and other factors. For example, if the Yankees go on a winning streak, their odds might drop to +15. If the Mets lose a key player, their odds might increase to +1000.

Before making a wild card bet on your favorite team, remember that this bet will only win if that team specifically earns a wild card spot. If it wins its division, you will lose the bet. In this way, wild card odds differ from overall MLB playoff odds.

A bet on a team to make the playoffs will win regardless of whether they are a wild card team or division winner.

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Key Takeaways on MLB Wild Card and Playoff Structure

The MLB wild card is part of the postseason and gives teams that didn't win their division a chance to win the World Series.

This has been in effect in some form since 1994 and helps with competitive balance by giving more teams a shot at the postseason. Wild card odds are influenced by team performance, schedule strength, and player health and give an idea of which teams will get those spots.

For fans and bettors, it's important to know how wild card teams are determined and seeded and what the tiebreakers are. History has shown that although wild card teams have worse records than division winners, they still have a good chance to win the championship.

FAQ

General Overview

What Are MLB Wild Cards?

MLB wild cards are teams that enter the postseason without winning their division. They were introduced in 1995 to expand playoff opportunities and now account for six teams in the postseason—three from the American League (AL) and three from the National League (NL).

How Many Wild Card Teams Are There?

Three wild card teams from each league join the postseason. These are the teams with the best regular-season records that didn’t win their division.

History of Wild Card Teams

When Were Wild Cards Introduced?

Wild cards debuted in 1995, adding a new layer of competition to the MLB postseason. Over the years, the format evolved to increase the number of teams and games.

What Are the Key Changes in Wild Card Format Over Time?
  • 1995: Wild cards were introduced with one team per league.
  • 2012: A second wild card team was added, requiring a one-game playoff.
  • 2022: A best-of-three Wild Card Round was established for six teams per league.

Playoff Structure

How Are Teams Seeded in the Playoffs?
  • #1 seed: Best league record (receives a bye).
  • #2 seed: Second-best division winner (receives a bye).
  • #3 seed: Third-best division winner.
  • #4, #5, #6 seeds: Wild card teams ranked by regular-season records.
What Are the Rounds in the MLB Playoffs?
  1. Wild Card Round: Best-of-three series.
  2. Divisional Round: Best-of-five series.
  3. Championship Series: Best-of-seven series.
  4. World Series: AL vs. NL champions in a best-of-seven series.
How Are Tiebreakers Resolved for Playoff Spots?
  1. Head-to-Head Record
  2. Intradivision Record
  3. Interdivision Record
  4. Second-Half Intraleague Games
  5. Previous Game Outcomes

References

Sources
Page Revisions
Current (January 06, 2025)
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Sol Fayerman-Hansen
<p>With 20+ years of writing experience across sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups, Sol brings a broad understanding to his role as Editor-in-Chief at RG. His work provides clear, factual information to help readers make informed decisions about gambling. Sol’s approach is about transparency and research, so the content at RG is straightforward, evidence-based, and accessible.</p><p>At RG, Sol keeps the focus on the reader by maintaining a standard of reliability and integrity in the information shared. Under his editorial direction, RG aims to provide practical insights into sports and sports entertainment that support a balanced and informed approach. Sol’s approach has helped RG become a go-to source for readers looking to engage responsibly and thoughtfully in the industry.</p>
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