Nate Adkins #45 of the Denver Broncos celebrates with teammates Alex Palczewski #63 and Bo Nix #10 (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
Brian Dawkins believes the Denver Broncos will make it to the playoffs.
The Broncos are seeking to clinch their first playoff berth since the 2015 season as they enter Week 17 with a 9-6 record. They currently hold the seventh seed after losing a heartbreaker to the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), a game in which they led 24-13. However, they currently hold a 76% chance of making it to the postseason and only need to win one of their remaining two games to clinch a playoff berth.
The problem is this — the Broncos face the Cincinnati Bengals on the road in a do-or-die game for the 7-8 Bengals and they'll host the 14-1 Kansas City Chiefs in the final week of the regular season. Denver is currently trying to hold off three 7-8 teams in the Bengals, Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins for the final spot in the AFC playoffs.
Dawkins believes his former team will sneak in — provided the Chiefs rest their starters in the season finale. That can only happen if Kansas City clinches the No. 1 seed before then either via victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day or the Buffalo Bills losing to the New York Jets in Week 17.
"I'm going to say yes, but it's more because I believe the Kansas City Chiefs will handle their business to keep the No. 1 seed and rest their players," says Dawkins in a one-on-one interview with RG.
It's worth noting that the Broncos played the Chiefs competitively in Kansas City in Week 10 and lost, 16-14, as a result of a blocked field goal attempt at the end of the game.
Dawkins believes head coach Andy Reid will rest most of the Chiefs' starters entering a meaningless Week 18 game against the Broncos (for Kansas City) if they have the No. 1 seed locked in before then.
"If the Chiefs win that game, that gives Denver a little bit more of a chance of beating them anyway at home," says Dawkins. "I believe Andy Reid will rest those guys, that they won't have the full squad out there."
Why Broncos Face Uphill Battle in Advancing in the Playoffs
Even if the Broncos do clinch a playoff berth, they'll likely enter as the No. 7 seed in a tough road game against the likely No. 2 seed in the Buffalo Bills. Dawkins isn't too much of a believer in Denver advancing deep into the postseason, especially if they're forced to face a playoff-tested team in the Bills.
When the Broncos faced a similar level of competition in the Baltimore Ravens along with a dual-threat quarterback like Josh Allen in Lamar Jackson, Denver posted their worst game of the season in a 41-10 throttling at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9 while allowing 396 yards.
He also acknowledges that Offensive Rookie of the year candidate Bo Nix is likely to face a rude awakening when facing playoff-level competition in January.
"It's going to be tough, obviously," says Dawkins of the Broncos' chances of advancing once in the playoffs.
"It's going to be even tougher because you have a rookie quarterback and I know he played throughout the year, he's growing, but the playoffs are a different beast – the stakes are more magnified in the postseason."
Dawkins also mentions the road conditions that the Broncos will have to face as a wild card team in order to advance into the playoffs. Traveling to Buffalo where it often snows heavily combined with single-digit temperatures in the month of January will undoubtedly have an effect on a young rookie quarterback such as Nix, Dawkins says.
"When you get to those environments, they didn't previously have to travel to a place like Buffalo," says Dawkins. "That is an absolute beast of a place to play, right? Any small thing to a young guy, how does that affect his psyche? How does that affect his composure to be able to stay steady if he does make a mistake? That's probably the only thing that concerns me, a rookie guy going into that environment."
It doesn't help that Buffalo also features a top-performing defense, ranking 11th in points allowed and third in turnovers. Furthermore, they have the potential 2024 MVP winner in Josh Allen and a team looking to break through and advance to the Super Bowl after years of coming up short and losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs.
Brian Dawkins Makes Prediction for Offensive Rookie of the Year
Regardless of how far the Broncos end up advancing in the playoffs, this season is already considered a success. Denver has clinched their first winning season since 2016 and if they clinch a playoff berth, they'll do so behind a rookie QB and with low expectations entering the season. Pro Football Focus rated the Broncos as having the worst roster in the NFL and Vegas gave Denver a 5.5-win total entering the season.
A large reason for that has been the play of Nix, who is one of the top two rookie quarterbacks in the league along with the Washington Commanders' Jayden Daniels. Alongside Daniels, Nix leads all rookie quarterbacks with 22 touchdown passes. He also leads all rookies with 326 completions in comparison to Daniels' 301 completions. However, he lags behind in other major categories such as completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating.
That's also not mentioning how Daniels has 737 rushing yards and six touchdowns to Nix's 352 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
Considering the Commanders are 10-5 and their 36-33 victory over one of the league's best teams in the Philadelphia Eagles, Dawkins believes it's Daniels — and not Nix — who will win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
"I think it's going to be Jayden," says Dawkins when asked who should win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award between him and Nix
"And the reason why is because of the poise he has and his ability to do what he's done for an organization that's been down. This is the first time they're pushing for the playoffs in a few years."
Brian Dawkins Spreading Awareness About Kidney Disease
Dawkins is speaking on behalf of his partnership with Boehringer & Lilly’s It Takes 2 campaign to spread awareness about kidney disease and getting tested for it. The former Broncos safety has family history relating to type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure, with both of his parents dealing with both conditions. It's a big reason why this is an important cause for the former Broncos safety.
"Just want to make sure people go to testyourkidneys.com for all the information you need," says Dawkins. "This is an extremely important message for a great population of the United States – 35 million individuals could likely have kidney disease, but 90% of them don't know. If you don't have it, you may know somebody that has those two markers. Make sure you reach out to them, make sure you contact them and make sure that they go testyourkidneys.com to find out all the information that they need so that they can talk to their doctors, they can team up and get those tests done."
DJ Siddiqi
