Column: Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win NBA MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder celebrates with fans during the second half against the Dallas Mavericks (Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)

The highlight reels could become footage to promote the NBA Cup. It could also become resume reels for voters to review before casting their regular-season MVP vote.

For now, the NBA hopes that Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo produce epic performances when the Thunder (20-5) and Bucks (14-11) play on Tuesday in the NBA Cup championship game in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena (8:30 pm ET, ABC). To ensure the NBA Cup’s relevance endures, the league can’t rely on a global brand (Los Angeles Lakers) or superstar (LeBron James) as it did during last year’s inaugural tournament.  

In nearly 4 ½ months, though, the Shai-Giannis showdown could become entrenched in voters’ minds as they determine which star player most deserves to win the NBA’s regular-season MVP award. Will Gilgeous-Alexander lead the Thunder to an NBA Cup championship with his lethal drives to the basket, improved 3-point shot and empowering leadership style? Or will Antetokounmpo ensure the Bucks hoist the NBA Cup trophy (and $500,000 for each player) with his athleticism, strength and smarts?

Granted, this showdown shouldn’t and likely won’t solely determine the NBA’s regular-season MVP race. That partly depends on how the rest of the season plays out among Gilgeous-Alexander, Antetokounmpo and their respective teams. Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić, Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum, Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Dončić and New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns have a shot, too.  

Based on early returns and how the rest of the season will likely play out, however, I feel confident enough to make an early prediction. Gilgeous-Alexander will win the 2024-25 regular-season MVP.  

Sure, Gilgeous-Alexander currently ranks third in points per game (30.3) behind other MVP candidates in Antetokounmpo (32.7) and Jokić (30.9). Gilgeous-Alexander (6.3) also fares behind Jokić (9.9) in assists. But Gilgeous-Alexander has made up for some of those slight statistical discrepancies in other areas.

Gilgeous-Alexander has stayed consistently prolific, posting at least 30 points in 10 of his past 12 games. He has shown encouraging progress with addressing his 3-point shooting, including a 5-for-9 clip in the Thunder’s quarterfinal win over Dallas. He remains a major reason why the Thunder have the Western Conference’s best record.  

To be clear, Jokić and Antetokounmpo shouldn’t be penalized for playing through tougher circumstances.  

Jokić has produced consistently despite fluidity with Jamal Murray’s effectiveness, Aaron Gordon’s recent right calf injury and the Nuggets’ mixed progress with their young players. Not surprising that Denver (14-10) sits in fifth place in the Western Conference.  

Antetokounmpo has played a large role in the Bucks winning 12 of their past 15 games following a 1-5 start. He drowned out increased league-wide speculation that he’d want the Bucks to trade him eventually.  He has helped camouflage the Bucks’ defensive inconsistency with his stellar presence.  

Nonetheless, it seems inevitable that Gilgeous-Alexander will collect some votes based on his role for OKC becoming a viable playoff contender. It seems likely that the Nuggets will experience more turbulence. It appears likely that the Bucks’ strong play won’t be enough to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers (23-4) and Boston Celtics (21-5). Barring multiple injuries, the Thunder have enough roster depth to overcome the challenges that await them.  

Oklahoma City has thrived because of stellar defense in its frontcourt (Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein) and wings (Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso). But the Thunder have become a complete team partly because of Gilgeous-Alexander’s influence. Though Dončić has improved with both elevating and trusting his teammates, Gilgeous-Alexander has proven more consistent in that area.  

OKC absorbed overlapping injuries to Holmgren and Hartenstein partly because Gilgeous-Alexander has become effective pick-and-roll partners with both players. The Thunder have become an offensively balanced team partly because Gilgeous-Alexander has blended both his isolation play and increased his playmaking. Though Gilgeous-Alexander remains a work in progress on defense, his teammates have thrived defensively partly because Gilgeous-Alexander’s prolific scoring and free-throw shooting have reduced opponents’ chances with increasing their pace.  

All of which sets up for an epic showdown in the NBA Cup, even if Gilgeous-Alexander and Antetokounmpo likely won’t defend one another.  Though both profess to care more about winning the Larry O’Brien trophy, expect both of them to perform well both to win the NBA Cup and to alert prospective voters where they should end up on the MVP ballot.