Understanding NFL MVP Betting Odds
BetMGM is a leading online sportsbook that allows fans to wager on which player will win the NFL's most prestigious individual award. Odds on the NFL MVP award are based on performance, team success, and public betting trends, so they change throughout the regular season.
The most common wager when betting on the NFL Most Valuable Player award is an outright bet on a single player to win. Favorites typically include top quarterbacks, though standout running backs occasionally emerge as strong contenders. Every MVP since 1987 has played one of those two positions.
BetMGM Sportsbook provides live odds adjustments, meaning bettors can track and place wagers as the season progresses. Injuries, big performances, and team standings all influence the shifting MVP odds week by week.
This guide will cover the odds you'll likely encounter with MVP betting at BetMGM, how the sportsbooks' odds compare to its direct competitors, and some basics of NFL MVP wagering.
Understanding Odds to Win NFL MVP
BetMGM NFL MVP odds depict a player's chances of winning the league's MVP award. They are listed in American (+500), decimal (6.0), or fractional (5/1) format.
For example, if Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win MVP, his odds would be +500, 6.0, or 5/1. A $100 bet would return $500 if he wins. The implied probability of him winning based on those odds would be 20%.
Because the NFL MVP race is so competitive, even preseason favorites have relatively long odds. However, strong play can change the odds significantly as the season progresses, creating new betting opportunities.
Picking the MVP requires examining player stats, team success, and historical voting trends. Making the correct prediction is very difficult.
Understanding odds is essential for betting on football or any other sport. If you're looking for an in-depth explanation, check out RG's thorough introduction to betting odds.
How A Winner is Chosen: NFL MVP Award Criteria
The NFL Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is given out annually by the Associated Press (AP) to the player who is voted most valuable during the regular season. A panel of 50 sportswriters who cover the NFL, vote on the award at the end of the regular season before the playoffs, and the results are announced the day before the Super Bowl.
The AP doesn't define "most valuable," but the voters consider several factors. Individual performance stats are the biggest, showing how much a player contributes to their team's success. Also, how much a player impacts their team overall and leadership and consistency throughout the season are significant parts of the equation.
Historically, the NFL MVP winners have mostly been quarterbacks, which is unsurprising as they have the most influence on the game. However, great seasons by running backs and, in rare cases, defensive players have been recognized. Defensive tackle Alan Page won MVP in 1971, and linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986.
The historical positional breakdown looks like this:
Top Contenders to Win 2025 NFL MVP
With the Philadephia Eagles' victory in Super Bowl LIX bringing an official end to the 2024 season, markets for the 2025 MVP award have opened. Below is a brief list of the top favorites to be aware of.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jackson fell just short of winning the 2024 MVP despite leading the NFL in yards per attempt (8.8) and passer rating (119.6) while rushing for 915 yards.
The dual-threat quarterback has already been named MVP twice. His ability to post extremely efficient passing numbers while gaining significant yardage on the ground makes him a constant in the MVP race.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Fresh off winning the 2024 NFL MVP, Allen is clearly a threat to win the award, though it's worth noting that since 1998, there have been just two back-to-back winners (Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021 and Peyton Manning in 2008 and 2009).
One of Allen's advantages over his competitors is that he's a rushing weapon near the goal line. Over the last two seasons, the Buffalo Bills quarterback has produced 27 rushing touchdowns. While a rushing touchdown total is rarely used to evaluate quarterbacks, Allen's unique approach to driving red-zone success is noteworthy.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Fans may not feel like Mahomes is a great bet after watching him flounder in the Super Bowl, but the two-time NFL MVP is always a threat to bring home the league's most prestigious award.
The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is coming off the worst year of his career in several metrics, including passing yards per game, yards per attempt, and sacks taken. However, at age 29, he remains in his prime and is a threat to post excellent numbers if the Chiefs can upgrade him to wide receiver and on the offensive line.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Although Burrow's Bengals didn't make the playoffs in 2025, he was outstanding, posting NFL-best totals in passing yardage (4918) and passing touchdowns (43).
If Cincinnati is able to repair its leaky defense and win more games in 2025, Burrow should get serious MVP consideration. He's finished in the top four in voting in two of the last three seasons.
Jayden Daniels, Washinton Commanders
Daniels is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. In his first season, he finished seventh in MVP voting.
Like Jackson and Allen, he makes contributions on the ground (891 rushing yards in 2024) as well as through the air. After leading a successful run to the NFC Championship Game as a rookie, he's likely to be a trendy pick entering the season.
NFL MVP Odds Comparison: BetMGM vs. Competitors
To get a sense of whether BetMGM offers competitive odds in this market, the comparison table below shows their lines for the 2025 NFL MVP favorites from the day after Super Bowl LIX (February 10, 2025):
| Player | BetMGM | DraftKings | BetRivers | FanDuel |
| Lamar Jackson | +450 | +500 | +600 | +450 |
| Josh Allen | +600 | +550 | +650 | +500 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +700 | +750 | +750 | +800 |
| Joe Burrow | +750 | +750 | +850 | +600 |
| Jayden Daniels | +1100 | +1000 | +1200 | +950 |
| Jalen Hurts | +2000 | +2500 | +1800 | +2000 |
| CJ Stroud | +2200 | +2500 | +1800 | +2200 |
| Justin Herbert | +2500 | +2000 | +1600 | +2200 |
| Jared Goff | +2500 | +2800 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Jordan Love | +2500 | +2200 | +2500 | +2500 |
Getting Started with NFL MVP Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM makes it easy for first-time bettors to access the NFL MBP betting markets. Here's a step-by-step guide to creating an account and placing bets.
Visit BetMGM:
- Access the BetMGM Sportsbook website or app to view NFL MVP betting odds.
- Ensure you are in a state where BetMGM operates legally.
Sign Up:
- Click "Sign Up" and provide your name, date of birth, and email address.
- Verify your identity using the last four digits of your Social Security Number (SSN) and enable geolocation services.
Deposit Funds:
- Choose from payment options like PayPal or bank transfers to fund your account.
Claim the BetMGM First Bet Offer:
- BetMGM has a first bet offer to new bettors.
Explore NFL MVP Betting Markets:
- Browse available markets and place your bet. Once you've selected your wager it will appear in your bet slip. Review the bet slip and proceed to make your bet.
Responsible Betting Best Practices for NFL MVP Betting
NFL futures betting is unpredictable, making responsible gambling essential. Below are some principles to consider when making NFL MVP bets.
| Principle | Description | Application in NFL MVP Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Set a Budget | Always establish a clear betting budget and stick to it. | A good rule is to risk no more than 1-5%of your disposable income. |
| Do Not Bet on Every Market | Focus on wagers where you have done research. | Bet only on a couple of top MVP candidates instead of placing bets on long shots. |
| Understand Key Factors | Team success and player stats heavily influence MVP voting. | Consider a QB's performance, supporting cast, and team record before placing a bet. |
| Know Historical Trends | If you are betting on anyone other than a quarterback, that's a significant longshot. | You may want to bet on a running back because you remember LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson winning MVP, but Saquon Barkley just had the best running back season in recent history and finished third in voting. |
| Track Your Betting Activity | Monitor bets to avoid problem gambling. | Keep a record of wins and losses to ensure responsible wagering. |
FAQ
MVP Record
Who has won the most MVP awards?
Peyton Manning has won the MVP award more than any other player in NFL history. He was named MVP four times as quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts and once with the Denver Broncos. Aaron Rodgers ranks second on the all-time list. He won four MVPs with the Green Bay Packers.
MVP Odds
How are NFL MVP odds determined?
NFL MVP odds are based on player performance, team success, and public betting trends. Sportsbooks like BetMGM adjust the odds throughout the season based on these factors.
Quarterbacks
Why do quarterbacks usually win MVP?
Quarterbacks have the most impact on a team's offensive success, which heavily influences MVP voting. Since 1987, every MVP has been either a quarterback or a running back.
MVP Announcements
When is the NFL MVP announced?
The MVP is awarded the night before the Super Bowl, based on votes from 50 sportswriters who cover the NFL. The voting is completed before the playoffs begin, meaning postseason performance does not count.
2025 Favorites
Who are the favorites to win NFL MVP in 2025?
Top contenders for the 2025 MVP include Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Jayden Daniels. Odds will shift throughout the season based on team performance and individual stats.
Finding Value
How can I find value when betting on the NFL MVP?
Look for players with strong stats, a winning team like the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings, and a narrative that could appeal to voters. That can take a number of forms, including impressive performances during primetime games like Sunday Night Football matchups or a comeback story after a rough previous season. Comparing odds across sportsbooks can also help maximize potential payouts.
References
More BetMGM Betting Guides
Meet our Authors
Paruyr Shahbazyan started his business career as an entrepreneur in 2000. Over 13 years, he learned business and leadership, which laid the foundation for his career.
In 2013, Paruyr entered the sports and betting industry as the founder and president of Bookmaker Rating, an online media platform he led until 2020. The platform focuses on in-depth analysis and insights in sports betting and has gained a reputation for quality content.
In 2022, Paruyr co-founded Azuro, a decentralized betting protocol. This shows his commitment to technology in the sports betting space. Through all these experiences, Paruyr has been shaping and influencing the betting industry, setting new trends and standards.
Innovation in sportsbetting comes from a deep understanding of both technology and the human element of sports.
Strategic Vision
Paruyr's vision is to revolutionize the sports entertainment industry by integrating technology. He sees the future of sports entertainment as a blend of traditional sports knowledge with innovative tech solutions, like decentralized protocols, to enhance user experience and fairness. He aims to create platforms that are not only user-friendly but also uphold the highest standards of ethical reporting, contributing to a more responsible and enjoyable sports culture.
