What It Takes to Stay Up: How Spending Shapes Premier League Survival
The Championship play-off final is the richest game in world football. Promotion to the Premier League brings lucrative financial benefits, along with a key challenge, survival, or a costly drop off. For newly promoted clubs, it’s a balancing act between financial sustainability and spending aggressively enough to stay competitive.
But is there a reliable threshold, a level of spending or wage commitment — that separates those who stay up from those who don’t? RG decided to find out.
Following the Money: What We Looked At
This analysis covers all 15 teams promoted to the Premier League between 2019 and 2024. For each, we tracked their net spend in the summer after promotion, estimated wage bill, and whether they survived their first season. Data was sourced from Transfermarkt, FBref, and public financial estimates.
Of course, spending alone doesn’t dictate outcomes — context matters. But across five seasons, some patterns are hard to ignore.
What the Data Shows
Teams that survived their first season spent an average of £73m net after promotion. Teams that went back down? Just £32m. In other words, clubs that avoided relegation typically invested more than twice as much.
There’s also a clearer picture forming around a survival threshold. Of the 15 teams studied, only one that spent less than £30m stayed up: Brentford in 2021–22, with smart, targeted signings and a stable system. Conversely, Burnley (2023–24) spent nearly £95m and still went down. But their strategy wasn’t necessarily about immediate survival — they targeted young, high-potential players like Zeki Amdouni and James Trafford with an eye on long-term development. In that sense, the spend was more of a future-facing investment than a short-term fix.
The takeaway: spending around £60–80m appears to give clubs the best chance, but how that money is used — and on whom — matters just as much.
Source: Transfermarkt
Season | Team | Total Expenditure (£m) | Total Sales (£m) | Net Spend (£m) | Wage Bill (£m) | Final Position | Survived? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019–20 | Norwich City | 6.6 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 89 | 20th | No |
| 2019–20 | Sheffield Utd | 72.2 | 29.2 | 43.0 | 78 | 9th | Yes |
| 2019–20 | Aston Villa | 156.5 | 11.5 | 145.0 | 109 | 17th | Yes |
| 2020–21 | Leeds United | 127.8 | 21.8 | 106.0 | 90 | 9th | Yes |
| 2020–21 | West Bromwich | 52.0 | 11.0 | 41.0 | 65 | 19th | No |
| 2020–21 | Fulham | 35.0 | 12.0 | 23.0 | 75 | 18th | No |
| 2021–22 | Norwich City | 66.5 | 16.5 | 50.0 | 56 | 20th | No |
| 2021–22 | Watford | 48.5 | 18.5 | 30.0 | 84 | 19th | No |
| 2021–22 | Brentford | 45.0 | 10.0 | 35.0 | 50 | 13th | Yes |
| 2022–23 | Fulham | 75.0 | 15.0 | 60.0 | 70 | 10th | Yes |
| 2022–23 | Bournemouth | 70.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 65 | 15th | Yes |
| 2022–23 | Not. Forest | 193.3 | 53.3 | 140.0 | 100 | 16th | Yes |
| 2023–24 | Burnley | 107.3 | 12.3 | 95.0 | 80 | 19th | No |
| 2023–24 | Sheffield Utd | 36.1 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 50 | 20th | No |
| 2023–24 | Luton Town | 25.6 | 3.4 | 22.0 | 25 | 18th | No |
Case Studies in Contrast
- Norwich 2019–20 spent just over £1m post-promotion and finished last.
- Brentford 2021–22 survived comfortably after spending only £35m, leaning on continuity and analytics-driven recruitment.
- Nottingham Forest 2022–23 spent £140m and signed 21 players. They stayed up, but only just — highlighting the risks of extreme churn.
Strategy Beyond the Transfer Fee
Spending is just one part of the equation. Wage commitment often mirrors transfer outlay — and most survivors ranked mid-table in wage bill. Relegated clubs frequently had bottom-three payrolls.
Another key variable? Managerial stability. Of the 7 clubs that stayed up, 6 kept their promotion-winning manager through the season. Among relegated sides, the majority changed coaches mid-year.
Perhaps most important, teams that retained a core squad and added 3–5 strategic signings outperformed those that made sweeping overhauls.
Can the Model Hold?
There’s no perfect blueprint, but patterns have emerged. Clubs that spend under £30m almost never survive. Those that spend £60m+ and support their manager tend to stay afloat — if the signings fit.
With TV revenues rising and wage inflation climbing, the cost of staying up is only increasing. The question now isn’t whether you can survive cheaply — it’s whether anyone still can.
Sukhman Singh is a U.S.-based sports writer and data analyst whose passion for sport began with cricket before expanding into football, and global sports. He brings a research-driven, analytical lens to every story, drawing on experience with Southampton FC, Lupus Sport, and editorial platforms like Breaking The Lines and UtdDistrict. With an MSc in Sports Analytics from Loughborough University London, Sukhman focuses on the intersection of performance and storytelling—exploring themes like talent development, coaching strategy, and the evolving identity of modern sport.
