An anonymous source is fed up with people who want to send all the top CHL prospects to play in the NCAA (Photo by Dennis Pajot/Getty Images)
The trajectory of junior hockey took a massive turn earlier this year when the NCAA and CHL reached a deal that could see players from the Canadian league commit to a college hockey program. The former agreement was that a player would forfeit his college eligibility if he played a game in the CHL. This led most Canadian-born college commits to play in various Canadian Junior A Hockey leagues or the United States Hockey League before jumping to the NCAA at 18 or 19.
The new deal allows CHL players to play in junior and then pursue a college education in the United States, instead of being forced to attend a Canadian college in the past. On the other hand, it also allows American-born players who want to play in the NCAA to still benefit from a CHL career before enrolling at the school. If done right, this agreement can improve the quality of play in both the CHL and NCAA.
NCAA-CHL Rumors
The problem now is that rumors are circulating that top-ranked Canadian prospects may forego the rest of their CHL careers to enroll at an American college. When Canadian hockey fans heard the terms of the deal, they thought they’d get a better product in their local junior rinks, but this new development could further diminish the CHL product. If top prospects like Gavin McKenna and Michael Misa leave the CHL early, it’d be a disaster for markets like Medicine Hat and Saginaw.
One source with close connections to the CHL and NHL landscape was reluctant when he heard about the deal, and with the newest rumors about the McKennas and Misas of the world, their worst fears are coming true.
“This whole CHL to NCAA narrative is overblown. Will some top-ranked CHL prospects make the move? Yes. But in ten years, we’ll see that more high-end Americans came to the CHL for their draft-eligible years than vice versa.”
In the long run, the source believes that American players will realize the benefits of playing in the CHL for their draft years. But there is a fear that the novelty of the NCAA deal could hurt the product over the next few seasons as some of these prospects make an early move. They want to caution players like McKenna, whose development may take a backseat if he moves to the United States before getting drafted.
The move to the NCAA has worked in the past for players like Macklin Celebrini, but the hit rate on NCAA draft-eligible players is far from a guarantee.
“It’s the new, fresh thing, so everyone is quick to put players like [Gavin] McKenna in the NCAA. I don’t get the benefit of playing 40 fewer games in a new league where it could take an adjustment period in your draft year. If you want to go to the NCAA, go after you get drafted for a year of playing against older players, not when you’re 17 and a potential first-overall pick.”
An Attractive Alternative
The NIL landscape is a massive draw for young Canadians, as they can go to the NCAA for a year before they sign their entry-level NHL deals and make some life-changing money. Another benefit of the NCAA is that players can get a degree while playing hockey, which also sets them up for the future if an injury or decline in skill happens that puts their playing futures in jeopardy.
The source understands that a degree and a chance to make NIL money is the best route for most CHL players, but he questions the select few who won’t stick around the NCAA. Players like McKenna and Misa will make life-changing money in the NHL if they develop correctly, and playing a more professional schedule in the CHL is still the best route for preparation.
“The allure of NIL for these young Canadians makes sense. But I’d rather have a better developmental year in the CHL and set myself up for a longer NHL career than take the quick payday for 1-2 years of playing at Boston College. It isn’t like these high-end players are going to stay long enough to finish their degree.”
These players have to decide whether they should sacrifice the quick payday in the NCAA to better prepare themselves for the massive contract they can get when it’s time for them to cash in at the NHL level. The degree option also doesn’t make sense for the high-end prospects, as they aren’t going to stick around the NCAA long enough to finish those degrees anyway.
The source envisions a perfect world in which the CHL becomes a development league for the NCAA, as the Junior A circuit in Canada has been for many years. They would rather see top prospects from all over North America play in the CHL until they get drafted in the NHL. Once drafted or aged out of Junior, the players could then try their hand in the NCAA.
If Misa wants to play a year at Boston College or Boston University next season after a team takes him in the first round, so be it. However, it’d be devastating to see McKenna leave Medicine Hat next season to play with Michigan or Denver in his draft year. The CHL relies on top prospects coming through their rinks for the small-town fans to get a glimpse of the sport’s future, and this NCAA deal threatens to take those moments away.
Our source believes it will eventually work out between the three CHL leagues and the NCAA. However, junior hockey fans in Canada could experience a rollercoaster of emotions over the next few years.
Nate Duffett is a Canadian sports writer who specializes in hockey. He started his writing career in the betting space but has since branched out into more journalism, including analysis and news from the NHL, MLB, NFL, and NCAA. You can find his other work at ClutchPoints, but RG will be his official home for exclusive content and analysis on critical topics in sports. In his spare time, Nate is also involved in the hockey scouting and coaching world, with these interests shining through in some of his pieces. You can come to Nate's work for his hockey analysis but stick around when he dabbles into other sports during the slower times.
