Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks (Photo by Brennan Asplen/Getty Images)
As teams across the NBA prepare for the offseason, the trade landscape surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo naturally sparks excitement. Yet it remains to be seen whether the two-time MVP will ultimately decide it’s best to move on from Milwaukee. For now, Antetokounmpo has made no firm decisions, but for the first time in his career, he’s open-minded about whether his long-term future is best served in Milwaukee or potentially elsewhere, league sources say.
That backdrop is expected to shape conversations this week in Chicago, where decision-makers from all 30 NBA teams have gathered for the Draft Combine. As executives survey the offseason landscape, multiple front-office personnel told RG that Antetokounmpo’s future was the most significant variable affecting planning and trade mapping. Teams have frequently approached Milwaukee about his availability in the past, but there is now an expectation that due diligence will escalate.
The 30-year-old forward is coming off another dominant campaign, averaging 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists in 67 games. Antetokounmpo continues to anchor Milwaukee on both ends of the floor. His consistent production has remained among the NBA’s elite, even as the Bucks have struggled to replicate their championship success in recent postseasons.
Since winning the NBA championship in 2021, Milwaukee has posted the league’s best regular-season win percentage but has won only one playoff series in the three seasons since. Antetokounmpo has made it clear recently that not winning a second championship weighs heavily on him. He views a second title as a critical benchmark in his career, and falling short of that goal would feel, in his words, like letting himself down.
The Bucks’ Complicated Crossroads
If Antetokounmpo eventually entertains the idea of a change, the Bucks’ position presents unique challenges. Milwaukee does not control its own first-round pick outright again until 2030. That eliminates the possibility of a full-scale rebuild centered on tanking. Any trade must return win-now talent or high-end draft assets acquired from other teams.
That criterion limits the field. Teams acquiring Antetokounmpo would likely become instant contenders, making their future picks low-value. Franchises with access to other teams’ draft capital or young, high-level talent are best positioned to craft a compelling offer.
League sources told RG that both the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs are viewed as motivated to improve quickly. Houston holds several of Brooklyn’s future picks and just made a playoff push. San Antonio, building around Victor Wembanyama, has a deep asset pool and appears positioned to act aggressively.
Another team to monitor is the Brooklyn Nets, who present significant salary cap flexibility in the largest market in the United States. While their current roster lacks the high-end player talent to headline a deal, their control of Phoenix’s draft future could make them a potential facilitator in a larger framework—or even a fallback destination if the roster improves through other acquisitions this summer.
League executives told RG that the New Orleans Pelicans could emerge as a central facilitator in any Antetokounmpo scenario due to their control of multiple Bucks draft picks from the Jrue Holiday trade. If Milwaukee were to consider a reset, reacquiring their own draft capital could become a priority, opening the door for New Orleans to play a pivotal role—whether by structuring their own offer or enabling a multi-team deal.
Atlanta Hawks Emerge as Dark-Horse Contender
Playoff outcomes can certainly dictate how the trade landscape could look, including another early exit for the Oklahoma City Thunder. However, as it stands, another team worth watching in the distance is the Atlanta Hawks. League sources told RG that Atlanta is evaluating several candidates to lead basketball operations, including CAA’s Austin Brown and Octagon’s Alex Saratsis, Antetokounmpo’s longtime agent. While such a hire wouldn’t automatically shift the franchise’s direction, it would naturally draw interest from around the league.
Another layer of alignment is also in play. Multiple sources told RG that Hawks head coach Quin Snyder has substantial input in basketball operations, and he, too, is represented by Octagon president Phil de Picciotto. That shared agency connection across head coach, a possible front-office hire, and a player of Antetokounmpo’s stature could help foster cohesion if Atlanta explored a bold swing.
Limited Options for Milwaukee
As for the Bucks, they enter the offseason facing limited flexibility. Milwaukee has seven players under contract for next season, including Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Kyle Kuzma, whose salaries alone account for $130 million of the team’s projected $164 million payroll. Lillard, who tore his left Achilles in Game 4 against Indiana, turns 35 in July and is owed $113 million over the next two seasons.
Pat Connaughton has a $9.4 million player option decision due by June 24. Brook Lopez (37), Bobby Portis (player option), and others could enter free agency. Re-signing Lopez, using the $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception, and filling out the roster would push Milwaukee into the luxury tax for a sixth straight year.
Since 2020, the Bucks have paid more than $220 million in tax penalties, and ownership now faces the question of whether to continue paying into the tax for a team that hasn’t advanced past the second round in three years.
Milwaukee’s front office has also exhausted many of its best trade tools. The team can only move one first-round pick in either 2031 or 2032 and lacks the mid-tier contracts that often serve as deal fillers in trade scenarios. Still, the Bucks believe they have slightly more functionality than in years past, thanks to upcoming trade exceptions and a pick now eligible to be moved.
Jon Horst, promoted to general manager in 2017, has shown a willingness to make big moves when needed—from the acquisition of Holiday in 2020 to last summer’s blockbuster for Lillard. Both deals were linked to key contract extensions for Antetokounmpo.
This offseason may prove even more consequential. The question remains for the rest of the league: Will Antetokounmpo decide his best chance to chase a second championship still lies in Milwaukee—or somewhere else?
Grant Afseth
