It's that time of year again, when just about everybody you know is in a March Madness bracket pool, and wondering what picks to make. The Illinois Fighting Illini, currently ranked #24 in the AP poll, and projected to be a #6 or #7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, are the wildest card that you can play.
They could just as easily make the Final Four as they could bow out in the first round. Their postseason fortunes are about as predictable as a spin on the roulette wheel. After losing at Illinois 88-80 on Friday night, Purdue coach Matt Painter said it best, and he pulled no punches in doing so.
“They can beat anybody in the country,” said Painter to RG, whose team is currently ranked #20 in the nation and projects as a #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. “They’re one of those teams that could just blitz people in the NCAA, but if they get in one of those ruts, that could beat them.”
All season long, we've seen this all-or-nothing phenomenon with the Illini, who are currently #15 in the NET rankings. When they beat Oregon (#29 in the NET, currently projected to be a #5 seed) 109-77 road on January 2nd, it marked the most lopsided road win over a top ten ranked team, ever.
They also won by 25 at Indiana, a team that's projected to make the tournament field.
On the flipside, Illinois has suffered losses to Nebraska (whose season is already over), Rutgers (who have an overall losing record, which is a very bad sign when you're a power conference team) and their defeat to Duke at Madison Square Garden in New York City was the most lopsided loss in the entire 120-year history of their program.
What explains these extremist polarities?
Illinois embodies the cliché of “living and dying by the three.”
Since that game, Illinois has moved up on that statistical list, as they now take the fourth most three-point attempts per game in the nation, with 30.3. They also moved up the list in percentage made to 318th (out of 355 teams) in the country, currently converting at a rate of 30.9%.
Preparing for the Big 10 Tournament
Illinois will begin the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday night having won three games in a row; two of which by 20 points. This comes on the heels of a very sluggish February where they went just 4-4.
“We had to get punched,” Illini coach Brad Underwood said. “We got smacked pretty good in New York. They bounced back. When you can get off the mat, that's what we want everyone in our program to be: to be the guy who gets back up after getting knocked out.”
The Illini are led by freshman combo guard and All-Big Ten third team member Kasparas Jakucionis. He's a projected consensus top 10 overall pick in this June's NBA Draft. Many, if not most, of the NBA mock drafts out there are predicting him to go top five or six.
It's easy to see why, given all the Luka Doncic comparisons he's inspired.
Jakucionis is very similar to the 2024 NBA scoring champion in that he's a smooth operator on the court and versatile scorer who can get buckets in numerous ways. Like Doncic, he can both bring it up and run the offense or play more off the ball in the backcourt.
“He's an NBA point guard,” Northwestern Wildcats coach Chris Collins said of the Lithuanian earlier this season. “KJ- I don't want to do his name injustice, he's a really tough cover as a guard, in pick and pop, pick and roll.”
Then you have another freshman, Will Riley, who will almost certainly mimic KJ in being one-and-done to the NBA Draft. He could go as high as the top 20 in June.
The highest rated Canadian in this year's freshman class, Underwood has consistently raved about his work ethic and versatility.
Earlier in the season, before Riley assumed a larger role within the team, Underwood had him running point guard for the second team. His consistent performances in practice inspired Underwood to compare him to Indiana Pacers Tyrese Haliburton.
“He's different,” Underwood said of Riley. “Will has got a different passion, motivation for the game than a lot of people.”
Riley discussed how he developed his “shooter's mentality”, the ability to keep on shooting even when the shots aren't falling.
“Putting in the work in the gym, when people aren't watching,” Riley said. “I know in myself what shots I can make, and what I can't make, so you know I'm just focused on that.”
The third main piece on this Illini team, who are third nationally in Quad-1 games played and ninth in Quad-1 wins, is seven-footer Tomislav Ivisic, who projects as a 2nd round prospect. The Croatian will most likely stay at least another year, and work on then boosting his draft stock.
With their best players hailing from Lithuania, Canada and Croatia respectively, the Illini are a team with a whole lot of international flavor.
However, one of their most important players, Kylan Boswell, hails from the program's hometown of Champaign. The Arizona transfer and glue guy also has some NBA Draft potential as well.
Illinois will open their Big Tournament campaign on Thursday night, when they meet the winner of Iowa-Ohio State in the second round.
On Sunday, they will learn their seeding, destination and opponent in the NCAA Tournament.
Paul M. Banks
