Understanding Total Runs in Baseball
When you visit a sportsbook's MLB section there are three bet types you are generally presented with immediately: a run line bet, a money line wager, and a total runs bet.
This article deals with the third option, which is an intuitive one to understand. When you place a bet on total runs you are simply wagering on the numbers of runs scored by both teams combined.
If the Boston Red Sox beat the New York Yankees by a score of 11-2, the total runs scored in that game is 13.
Before that game an over/under line would be set. If the total number of runs exceeds that total over bettors have won and under bettors have lost.
Importance of total runs in baseball betting
Total runs scored is a popular thing to bet on in baseball betting as an option to place wagers without having to predict a game outcome.
Some bettors are also uncomfortable with diving in on individual player props due to baseball's day-to-day volatility, but they may feel that it's easier to predict what two full lineups will combine to produce as that comes from a larger sample than four or five at-bats by a single hitter.
How MLB Over/Under Betting Works
Over/Under betting functions similarly in baseball as it does it other sports. Sportsbooks' MLB lines for game totals and bettors have the option of predicting the total number of runs in the game will be below or above that total.
For example, for a game with total runs line of 8.5, bettors who wager on the over will win if there are nine or more runs scored. If there are eight or fewer runs in the baseball game those who backed the under will be victorious.
In most cases sportsbooks set this line with a .5 decimal so there cannot be push results, leaving definitive winners and losers on every bet.
How to place an MLB over/under bet
The format of different online sportsbooks varies, but in the vast majority of cases over/under bets are available on the main MLB landing pages of major sportsbooks.
That means you don't have to dive into all of the markets available to see these bets, they should show up right away.
Below is an example from DraftKings Sportsbook where the total runs bet is in the middle between the run line and the money line.
That isn't a completely standardized format, though. FanDuel Sportsbook, for instance, puts its totals bets in the right column with the money line in the middle and the run line on the left. Whatever the case may be, the over/under bet shouldn't be difficult to find.
MLB Betting Strategies
Baseball betting can involve several advanced strategies, but before diving deep into those, its important to get a basic understanding of the most foundational concepts.
Baseball Betting Basics: Understanding Plus and Minus odds
There are more than one ways odds can be presented with baseball betting, but the most common is American Odds.
They are based on a baseline bet of $100 and can be either positive or negative, indicating the profit or the amount you need to bet to win $100, respectively.
Basic Concept
Positive odds indicate how much profit you will make on a $100 bet, while negative odds indicate how much you need to bet to make a $100 profit.
- Example: Odds of +250 mean you will make a profit of $250 on a $100 bet. Odds of -150 mean you need to bet $150 to make a $100 profit.
Calculating Winnings
- Positive Odds: Winnings = (Stake x (Positive Odds / 100)) + Stake
- Example: If you bet $100 at FanDuel with odds of +200, your total return will be $300 ($100 x 2 + $100). The profit is $200 ($300 - $100).
- Negative Odds: Winnings = (Stake / (Negative Odds / 100)) + Stake
- Example: If you bet $150 at odds of -150 at DraftKings, your total return will be $250 ($150 / 1.5 + $150). The profit is $100 ($250 - $150).
Comparing Odds
- Positive Odds: Indicate a lower probability of the outcome and a higher potential return.
- Negative Odds: Indicate a higher probability of the outcome and a lower potential return.
Quick Tips
- Odds of +100: This is evens, meaning you double your money if you win.
- Negative Odds: These show the favorite in the matchup, requiring a larger stake to win a smaller profit.
- Positive Odds: These show the underdog in the matchup, offering a larger profit for a smaller stake.
Run lines and Money lines
The other two most common wagers in baseball betting are run line and money line wagers. A money line bet is a wager on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the margin of victory.
A run line wager is a baseball's version of a bet on a point spread, with that spread almost always set at 1.5. That means betting on a run-line favorite means you're counting on that team to win by two or more runs. A bet on the underdog cashes if that team wins the game or loses by a single run.
Factors Affecting Total Runs in Baseball
The idea of betting on the total number of runs scored in a game seems simple enough, but a lot goes into totals bets.
On the surface, it may seem like you could look at two teams' average offensive output and combine that to predict the runs in a game, but that would be a dubious strategy.
To have a sense of team totals in baseball games you also need to consider things ranging from injury situations to the starting pitchers on each side. In a few extreme cases, there are even certain umpires who have been known to affect the total number of runs scored.
Stadiums and their impact on total runs in baseball
One of the things that make baseball unique is that it isn't played in stadiums with uniform dimensions. Because each stadium is different the type of games played in each city tend to be different too.
The size of stadiums can have an enormous effect on home runs, which is a major driver of run scoring. Other factors like altitude can also play a factor. Coors Field in Denver, Colorado is the most prominent example of that as its thin air makes it an excellent place to hit home runs.
In some stadiums, it isn't easy for hitters to get the ball over the wall, but other qualities benefit hitters and can juice run scoring. For example, the Chicago Cubs play at the historic Wrigley Field, which has been 30% better for triples hitting over the last three years than the MLB average.
The bottom five stadiums for home runs and their impact on total runs
According to Baseball Savant, the five worst stadiums for home runs since the beginning of the 2022 season are as follows:
- Oracle Park (San Francisco Giants): 20% worse than league average
- Oakland Coliseum (Oakland Athletics): 18% worse than league average
- Comerica Park (Detroit Tigers): 17% worse than league average
- Chase Field (Arizona Diamondbacks): 17% worse than league average
- PNC Park (Pittsburgh Pirates): 15% worse than league average
It's important to note that just because hitters don't generate the same amount of home runs at these parks it doesn't mean that run scoring will definitively decrease.
Chase Field, for example is an excellent place to hit singles, doubles, and triples which makes it an approximately neutral run-scoring environment.
The overall Park Factor metric at Baseball Savant is an excellent resource for examining if a specific team plays in a ballpark that suppresses or encourages high scores.
What Else Should You Consider When Betting on Total Runs in Baseball?
There are several factors beyond ballparks that should be considered before making any total run bets. Perhaps the most important thing to check is the starting pitcher for each individual team as those pitchers tend to stay in for more than half of the game.
It's also worth keeping an eye on the starting lineups to see whether any top hitters are absent due to injury or simply taking a day off.
Another notable factor is the weather. Temperature can affect the way the ball travels leading to more home runs when it's hot and fewer when it's cold. Precipitation can also cause games to be called early — sometimes after as few as five innings — and severely reduce run scoring.
Conclusion
It is difficult to predict the final result of any baseball game, which is part of what can make betting on baseball difficult.
Some bettors prefer to target total runs and team totals markets as result, but there isn't a significantly lower risk associated with those bets.
There are still a myriad of factors that go into betting on these markets, and while there are plenty of resources available to provide helpful information a high percentage of these bets will still be unsuccessful.
Total Runs FAQ
What Does Total Runs Mean in Baseball?
What are total runs in MLB betting?
Total runs in baseball betting refer to the combined number of runs scored by both teams in a game.
For instance, if the Boston Red Sox beat the New York Yankees 11-2, the total runs scored would be 13.
Bettors can wager on whether the total runs will be over or under a specified line set by the sportsbook.
Importance of Total Runs in Baseball Betting
Why is betting on total runs popular?
Betting on total runs is popular because it allows bettors to place wagers without predicting the specific outcome of MLB games.
Instead of focusing on which team will win the game, bettors predict whether the combined score of both teams will be above or below a certain threshold, providing a different angle for making informed bets.
How MLB Over/Under Betting Works
How does over/under betting work in MLB games?
In MLB over/under betting, sportsbooks set a total runs line for a game, and bettors predict if the combined score will be higher or lower than that line.
For example, with a line set at 8.5, a bet on the over wins if there are nine or more runs, while a bet on the under wins if there are eight or fewer runs when the game ends.
How to Place an MLB Over/Under Bet
Where can I find over/under bets on a sportsbook?
Over/under bets are typically available on the main MLB landing pages of major sportsbooks.
They are usually listed alongside run line and money line bets. The exact placement may vary by sportsbook, but they are generally easy to find without diving deep into the markets.
Understanding the Impact of Weather on Total Runs
How does weather affect total runs in MLB games?
Weather can significantly impact total runs in MLB games. High temperatures can help the ball travel farther, leading to more home runs, while cold weather can suppress scoring.
Rain can also affect games, sometimes causing delays or early endings, which can impact the total runs scored when the game ends.
Factors Affecting Total Runs in Baseball Question: What factors should be considered
What factors should be considered when betting on total runs in MLB games?
Several factors affect total runs in baseball games, including the starting pitchers, injury situations, weather conditions, and stadium characteristics.
For instance, some stadiums are more conducive to home runs, while others suppress scoring.
Stadiums and Their Impact on Total Runs in Baseball
How do different stadiums impact total runs in MLB games?
Each MLB stadium has unique dimensions and characteristics that influence run scoring. For example, Coors Field in Denver is known for its high altitude, which boosts home run rates.
Conversely, stadiums like Oracle Park in San Francisco suppress home runs. Understanding these nuances can help bettors make more informed total runs.
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