What Does Total Runs Mean in Baseball: Understanding MLB Run Betting

How MLB Over/Under Betting Works

Over/Under betting functions similarly in baseball as it does it other sports. Sportsbooks' MLB lines for game totals and bettors have the option of predicting the total number of runs in the game will be below or above that total.

For example, for a game with total runs line of 8.5, bettors who wager on the over will win if there are nine or more runs scored. If there are eight or fewer runs in the baseball game those who backed the under will be victorious.

In most cases sportsbooks set this line with a .5 decimal so there cannot be push results, leaving definitive winners and losers on every bet.

How to place an MLB over/under bet

The format of different online sportsbooks varies, but in the vast majority of cases over/under bets are available on the main MLB landing pages of major sportsbooks. 

That means you don't have to dive into all of the markets available to see these bets, they should show up right away.

Below is an example from DraftKings Sportsbook where the total runs bet is in the middle between the run line and the money line.

That isn't a completely standardized format, though. FanDuel Sportsbook, for instance, puts its totals bets in the right column with the money line in the middle and the run line on the left. Whatever the case may be, the over/under bet shouldn't be difficult to find.

MLB Betting Strategies

Baseball betting can involve several advanced strategies, but before diving deep into those, its important to get a basic understanding of the most foundational concepts.

Baseball Betting Basics: Understanding Plus and Minus odds

There are more than one ways odds can be presented with baseball betting, but the most common is American Odds.

They are based on a baseline bet of $100 and can be either positive or negative, indicating the profit or the amount you need to bet to win $100, respectively.

Basic Concept

Positive odds indicate how much profit you will make on a $100 bet, while negative odds indicate how much you need to bet to make a $100 profit.

• Example: Odds of +250 mean you will make a profit of $250 on a $100 bet. Odds of -150 mean you need to bet $150 to make a $100 profit.

Calculating Winnings

• Positive Odds: Winnings = (Stake x (Positive Odds / 100)) + Stake
• Example: If you bet $100 at FanDuel with odds of +200, your total return will be $300 ($100 x 2 + $100). The profit is $200 ($300 - $100).
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• Negative Odds: Winnings = (Stake / (Negative Odds / 100)) + Stake
• Example: If you bet $150 at odds of -150 at DraftKings, your total return will be $250 ($150 / 1.5 + $150). The profit is $100 ($250 - $150).

Comparing Odds

• Positive Odds: Indicate a lower probability of the outcome and a higher potential return.
• Negative Odds: Indicate a higher probability of the outcome and a lower potential return.

Quick Tips

• Odds of +100: This is evens, meaning you double your money if you win.
• Negative Odds: These show the favorite in the matchup, requiring a larger stake to win a smaller profit.
• Positive Odds: These show the underdog in the matchup, offering a larger profit for a smaller stake.

Run lines and Money lines

The other two most common wagers in baseball betting are run line and money line wagers. A money line bet is a wager on which team will win the game outright, regardless of the margin of victory.

A run line wager is a baseball's version of a bet on a point spread, with that spread almost always set at 1.5. That means betting on a run-line favorite means you're counting on that team to win by two or more runs. A bet on the underdog cashes if that team wins the game or loses by a single run.

Factors Affecting Total Runs in Baseball

The idea of betting on the total number of runs scored in a game seems simple enough, but a lot goes into totals bets.

On the surface, it may seem like you could look at two teams' average offensive output and combine that to predict the runs in a game, but that would be a dubious strategy.

To have a sense of team totals in baseball games you also need to consider things ranging from injury situations to the starting pitchers on each side. In a few extreme cases, there are even certain umpires who have been known to affect the total number of runs scored.

Stadiums and their impact on total runs in baseball

One of the things that make baseball unique is that it isn't played in stadiums with uniform dimensions. Because each stadium is different the type of games played in each city tend to be different too.

The size of stadiums can have an enormous effect on home runs, which is a major driver of run scoring. Other factors like altitude can also play a factor. Coors Field in Denver, Colorado is the most prominent example of that as its thin air makes it an excellent place to hit home runs.

In some stadiums, it isn't easy for hitters to get the ball over the wall, but other qualities benefit hitters and can juice run scoring. For example, the Chicago Cubs play at the historic Wrigley Field, which has been 30% better for triples hitting over the last three years than the MLB average.

The bottom five stadiums for home runs and their impact on total runs

According to Baseball Savant, the five worst stadiums for home runs since the beginning of the 2022 season are as follows:

1. Oracle Park (San Francisco Giants): 20% worse than league average
2. Oakland Coliseum (Oakland Athletics): 18% worse than league average
3. Comerica Park (Detroit Tigers): 17% worse than league average
4. Chase Field (Arizona Diamondbacks): 17% worse than league average
5. PNC Park (Pittsburgh Pirates): 15% worse than league average

It's important to note that just because hitters don't generate the same amount of home runs at these parks it doesn't mean that run scoring will definitively decrease.

Chase Field, for example is an excellent place to hit singles, doubles, and triples which makes it an approximately neutral run-scoring environment. 

The overall Park Factor metric at Baseball Savant is an excellent resource for examining if a specific team plays in a ballpark that suppresses or encourages high scores.

What Else Should You Consider When Betting on Total Runs in Baseball?

There are several factors beyond ballparks that should be considered before making any total run bets. Perhaps the most important thing to check is the starting pitcher for each individual team as those pitchers tend to stay in for more than half of the game.

It's also worth keeping an eye on the starting lineups to see whether any top hitters are absent due to injury or simply taking a day off.

Another notable factor is the weather. Temperature can affect the way the ball travels leading to more home runs when it's hot and fewer when it's cold. Precipitation can also cause games to be called early — sometimes after as few as five innings — and severely reduce run scoring.

Conclusion

It is difficult to predict the final result of any baseball game, which is part of what can make betting on baseball difficult. 

Some bettors prefer to target total runs and team totals markets as result, but there isn't a significantly lower risk associated with those bets.

There are still a myriad of factors that go into betting on these markets, and while there are plenty of resources available to provide helpful information a high percentage of these bets will still be unsuccessful.

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