Quarterback Caution Leads to Team Success in NFL

We analyzed data from NFL Pro, NFL Next Gen Stats, NFL.com, Pro Football Reference, and StatMuse, looking at ten quarterback and team statistics across 13 categories:

1. Aggressiveness Percentage: The percentage of tight-window throws. How cautious or how much risk a quarterback takes.
2. Completion Percentage: The number of completions divided by attempts and how accurate and efficient a quarterback is.
3. Yards Per Attempt (YPA): How many yards a quarterback gets per pass attempt.
4. Passer Rating: A combination of completion percentage, touchdowns, interceptions, and yards per attempt.
5. Touchdowns (TDs): The total number of touchdown passes.
6. Interceptions (INTs): The total number of interceptions.
7. Playoff Wins: Postseason success.
8. Super Bowl Wins: The ultimate team metric.
9. Most Valuable Player (MVP) Awards: Individual excellence.
10. Red Zone Pass Completion Percentage (Inside 20 Yards): How efficient in scoring situations.
11. Third Down Conversion Percentage: Ability to sustain drives by converting third downs into first downs.
12. Time to Throw (Seconds): How long a quarterback has to throw the ball after the snap, how much protection they get from their Offensive Line.
13. Pressure Rate (%): How often the defense pressures a quarterback.

While conservative quarterbacks tend to achieve higher completion percentages by choosing safer throws, this trend isn't universal. Some aggressive quarterbacks defy the norm, maintaining impressive completion rates while taking more risks downfield. (NFL Pro, 2024)

• Patrick Mahomes, with an aggressiveness percentage of 10.17%, has a completion rate of 66.9%.
• Jared Goff, the second-most cautious QB we analyzed, was just behind Mahomes at 66.7% completion.
• Derek Carr, the fifth most cautious quarterback analyzed, has a completion rate of 67.37%.
• Kirk Cousins has the highest completion percentage, at 68.1%, but is the third most aggressive quarterback, at 15.34%. He’s an outlier who has scored well across numerous categories.
• Dak Prescott is also an outlier in this category as the most aggressive quarterback on the list and the third-best completion percentage. While his style of play has been good for his performance in this category, it does not translate to team success.

Comparison Across Styles

Not all high-completion quarterbacks are cautious. For example:

• Matthew Stafford has a 65.56% completion rate and a high aggressiveness percentage of 15.54%, but data will show that this does not translate into winning games.
• On the other hand, Josh Allen, known for his big-play ability, has the lowest completion rate of our quarterbacks, at 62.48%, and a 13.64% aggressiveness percentage.

While not yet conclusive, based on completion percentage alone, lower aggressiveness points to better completion rates. (NFL.com, 2024)

To further assess the impact of quarterback caution on success, we examined aggressiveness against passer ratings and win records. Passer rating is a crucial indicator of a quarterback's efficiency, while win records in the regular season and playoffs reflect the bottom line. This data set focused on how Aggressiveness Percentage correlates with passer rating, regular-season wins, playoff victories, and Super Bowl wins.

• Passer Ratings: Only two of the top five most cautious quarterbacks (Mahomes and Jackson) have the highest passer ratings. Kirk Cousins, our outlier, has the second-highest passer rating despite very high Aggressiveness Percentages.
• Regular Season Wins: Four of the top five quarterbacks with the most regular-season wins (Mahomes, Goff, Allen, Jackson) are among the most cautious. This indicates a strong correlation between QB caution and team success.
• Playoff Wins and Super Bowls: Four of the top five quarterbacks with the most playoff and Super Bowl wins are also the most cautious. 
  • Mahomes leads with 15 playoff wins and 3 Super Bowl victories, reinforcing the link between caution and postseason success. 
  • Stafford, with a moderate Aggressiveness Percentage, has five playoff wins and a Super Bowl win, suggesting that while caution is beneficial, it's not the only path to postseason success. 
  • Goff has won 5 playoff games as well over his career.
  • Lamar Jackson has won 2 playoff games.

While only two of the top five most cautious quarterbacks have the highest passer ratings, the wins go to more cautious quarterbacks who are likelier to lead their teams to regular-season and playoff victories. 

Critical moments in football involve the quarterback’s performance in the red zone and on third downs, where precision and decision-making are crucial. Looking at Red Zone Pass Completion Percentage and Third Down Conversion Percentage vs. Aggressiveness Percentage shows that less aggressive quarterbacks are also more efficient in these situations.

• Patrick Mahomes has the lowest aggressiveness percentage (10.17%), a red zone completion rate of 60.3%, tied for second-highest, and the third-best third-down conversion rate of 48.3%. 
• Jared Goff (12.31% aggressiveness) matches Mahomes in the red zone but trails in third-down conversions with 40.9% to round out the Top 5. 
• Our outlier, Kirk Cousins (15.34% aggressiveness), shows that being more aggressive doesn’t mean you can’t be efficient. He leads in red zone completion rate at 67.1% but struggles with third-down conversions, with our second-lowest average of 38.9%.
• Josh Allen (13.64% aggressiveness) has a lower red zone completion rate of 52.5% and a third-down conversion rate of 55.8%. 
• Lamar Jackson (13.21% aggressiveness) has the fourth-best red zone rate at 58.8% but a lower third-down conversion rate of 43.6%. Jackson's offense is also tailored for his incredible rushing abilities, and he is set to break the record for total QB rush yards, perhaps even this season. (StatMuse, 2024)

Metrics like Time to Throw and Pressure Rate show how well a quarterback’s Offensive Line performs. When a quarterback has less time to throw, it usually means they have weaker protection and must get the ball out quickly. 

1. Jared Goff demonstrates how caution can overcome subpar protection. With 2.79 seconds to throw and a 34% Pressure Rate, his offensive line provides only moderate support. His ability to excel under average protection supports the power of cautious, quick decisions, as his win record proves.
2. Josh Allen strengthens the argument that caution trumps aggressiveness. He is the fourth-most cautious quarterback, enjoys a bit more time to throw at 2.93 seconds, but has the third-highest pressured rate at 35.8%. 
3. Matthew Stafford and Dal Prescott have similar Time to Throw and Pressure Rates. They are both considered aggressive quarterbacks, which is another example of how that style of play does not translate into winning games. 
4. Kirk Cousins, again our outlier, is pressured more than anyone on the list at 39% and has a moderate 2.83s to throw the ball. Cousins has proven again that his skill and talents bring him more individual success than team success.

2018-2024 NFL quarterback data shows a clear pattern: playing it safe leads to more efficiency, better performance in crunch time, and ultimately more team success. Certainly, one can argue that Mahomes' or Jackson's natural ability put them in a different quarterback class. Still, perhaps if more aggressive quarterbacks adopted a more cautious style of play, their teams would enjoy greater success.

"Caution isn’t just a virtue—it’s a formula for success. NFL quarterbacks with lower pass aggression rates consistently convert more 3rd downs, score more touchdowns, and ultimately win more games."

In the end, while some aggressive quarterbacks have seen personal success from their style of play, the data shows caution, patience, and adaptability are the keys to elite quarterback play. 

NFL teams and coaches should remember that caution is not a concession; it’s a formula for success.

References

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