Key Takeaways
- Emotional betting — especially tied to fandom — is one of the biggest traps for casual gamblers.
- Esparza emphasizes focusing on value-based plays like method-of-victory props, not inflated favorites.
- Discipline, bankroll management, and timing bets wisely are what separates pros from the public.
Leon Edwards of Jamaica and Bulal Muhammad face off (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Few voices in the sports betting world bring the combination of experience, creativity, and perspective that Raphael Esparza does. As a global oddsmaker and professional handicapper, Esparza has worked with industry giants like Caesars, MGM, and MyBookie, among others, dedicating nearly 30 years to setting odds and dissecting the landscape of combat sports, as heard on ESPN, Fox Sports, SiriusXM, and more. From traditional lines to headline-grabbing props across all sports, Esparza’s work remains as sharp as it is entertaining. In this Q&A, he shares the philosophies of an oddsmaker, what truly separates casual bets from professional plays, and how to start approaching the fight game with a gambling veteran’s mindset.
What are the key factors you have to evaluate before making odds for a fight night?
ESPARZA: "The key factor for me is the No. 1 rule: How do I get two-way action on this one? Of course, combat sports are a little bit different because some of the fights can be at a really high price. You're not really going to get much two-way action on those fights because everybody is going to take the dog. For oddsmakers, a lot of the time, you just have to control the dog money coming in because anything can happen in combat sports. Someone can land a lucky punch, a lucky kick, take someone's back, tap out — it doesn't matter who you are. It can happen. You're really trying to not lose the house on those fights and gain money on others throughout the card. In fighting, you have to look at the entire card itself. You have to think about how you're going to get that money back if you take a bath on a huge underdog, because you'll have six to seven other fights to do that."
I'd imagine for this question that the answer will either be chasing bets or emotional betting, but what's the biggest mistake you see new or casual bettors make time and time again?
ESPARZA: "People would think I'm going to say chasing, but it's the emotional bets. People always want to bet on their team or fade their team. It's night and day every single time. It's, 'Oh, I hate this fighter. This fighter got arrested years ago; I still hate him, and I'm going to bet against him.' Throw that all out of the window. We're talking about money here. It's not about, 'But I'm a diehard Cubs fan or Saints fan, so I have to bet on them.' No. Money is totally different from fandom.
You have to throw your fandom out of the window when you're betting. Now, if you're just doing it because the kids are in bed and the wife went out, so you're going to put $10 down on this one — that's fine. But if you really want to be serious and build a bankroll, not for a living but just to be significant, your fandom has to be removed.
Just because a game is on TV and it's your team does not mean that you need to bet on that game."
How can a bettor prevent getting influenced not just by their fandom, but also sometimes the media narratives or crowd hype involved?
ESPARZA: "One of the biggest things bettors fall into are these apps. They log in and what's the first thing they see? SGP — same game parlays. 'This parlay will pay you this price, when it's normally that price.' There's a reason why these books do that, and there's a reason why parlays are probably 70% of the action coming in. It's probably their biggest money maker. You see it all the time, and I tell people to not fall into that trap. 'But with the reload bonus on $5 they're going to give me $100 if I make it all parlay bets.' No. Don't. They're not being generous. They don't want to be your best friend. They want to take your money. They get mad when you win, so why would they give offers to help you out? Be very careful with these promos, SGPs, and bonuses that they do."
What types of bets in combat sports do you feel like present the most value long term: moneylines, props, parlays (obviously not the answer), etc.?
ESPARZA: "It all depends on the fight. In the main event, if you like the favorite, I'd never tell you to go lay -420. I'd look at a decision or finish. Those are the ones that are beneficial. There are fights that puzzle me a little bit more where I would just pick the winner, but if you want to make a little bit more bang for your buck, then decision, KO, props like that are the way to go."
Between the press conference, weigh-in and face-offs, if someone is waiting until fight week to lean one way or the other on a bout, that's of course what they're looking at. How much do you look at the weight cut and mentality of a fighter during fight week as an oddsmaker?
ESPARZA: "For an oddsmaker, your job really starts after the weigh-in. People will run to the window or log into their computers to tell you what they saw and what they think is going to happen. That's when you have to really adjust your numbers. Usually I tell people, after the weigh-in, that's where you earn your money. When I used to work at MGM, after the weigh-ins, the crowds would come in and tell you what they saw and they're going to pound it."
Do you have any tips for how someone should approach building and managing bankroll when betting on combat sports?
ESPARZA: "Start small. I remember when I first started at Caesars Palace, I would dabble a little in it, but then I saw professional handicappers every day there making a lot of money and I would talk to them, ask how they started. I remember one guy told me, 'I started only betting $11 to win $10.' Back then, the juice was only -110. Now, some books have -120 on their juice or -130. He never told me his full bankroll, but his bets all started at $11 to win $10. If he really liked a game, then $22 to win $20. That's how he built his bankroll. If he had a really good run, then the next week maybe he bumped all his plays up to $22 to win $20, or $33 to win $30. He'd say when he had bad weeks that he'd take a step back. If he was up to $55 to win $50 every game and had a bad week, then the next week maybe he'd only do $33 to win $30 or $44 to win $40. That's how you have to do it. Not just, 'Okay, my first bet is going to be $110 to win $100.' Your bankroll can go really quickly that way."
How should a bettor go about evaluating when it's more beneficial to wager early on as odds first roll out, potentially taking advantage of a bad number, or wait until fight week approaches to get a better one?
ESPARZA: "That's the greatest question I always get. Sometimes I tell people to wait and the number moves totally opposite. Then I'm like, 'I can't believe I told the media world in an interview to wait and the numbers swung the other way.' I always say if you're picking a fight, or a couple of fights, look at what you want the number to be. If you think the price is too high and dog money is coming in, then I say wait. You never know what'll happen at the weigh-in. Maybe they look really awful at the weigh-in or they just had a tough weight cut. Maybe that number comes down. You can look at the same thing with an underdog. If you want a better number, then you can always wait to see if the bettors move it. It's a hit or miss more than any sport. In football, you're only going to move maybe a half point or a point, unless a quarterback is out. In any MMA action or boxing action, a 20-cent or 30-cent shift is a much bigger difference than half of a point."
Have you noticed any overwhelming common threads in gamblers that you see become significantly profitable long term?
For you, as someone in this professionally, I know it can be rough at times. How do you mentally and strategically handle the big wins, tough losses and all the other natural and inevitable ups and downs of sports betting?
ESPARZA: "People ask my wife more than they ask me, 'How does he do it? Does he sweat when he's watching? Does he yell at the TV?' But my philosophy is: once I hit submit, or once I get my ticket in my hand, there's nothing I can do. I can handicap a game until my eyes bleed, or I can have inside information, but if a pitcher blows his arm out in the second inning, it's all out of the window. Once you hit submit and get that ticket, it's completely out of your hands. We all have bad days. We all have good days. I try to keep my emotions out of it because again, there's nothing I can do. I did my research. I did what I could. Everything else is out of my control."
Lastly, if there's one thing you want a reader or bettor to take away from a conversation like this, regarding a more professional approach to betting combat sports, what would it be?
ESPARZA: "Take the fandom out. Even if you love this fighter, or like that fighter, some days that person just doesn't have it. If you see value on the other side, even though he's your favorite fighter — it doesn't matter. You can still like him, but it's all about winning and cashing a ticket. Obviously, don't chase either. UFC can be almost a five-hour event. If you're one of those bettors that bets throughout the whole card, and if you just lost three fights in a row, maybe that's your sign to sit back and watch the rest. You don't want to be chasing the whole night, because that bad night could turn into an extremely bad night."
Now with that insight in mind, to close by taking a page out of Esparza's book and emphasizing his signature sign-off, please don't bet what you don't have. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help by contacting a support organization such as the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER.
