Key Takeaways
- Gavin McKenna is the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, and many scouts view him as a franchise cornerstone.
- Sources tell RG that trade season could begin by American Thanksgiving, with teams potentially looking to win the McKenna sweepstakes.
- The number of intriguing prospects in the 2026 draft class alongside McKenna may really shake things up when organizations decide the direction of their future.
Mike Grier with Bill Guerin (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
The 2025–26 NHL season hasn’t started yet, but around the league, front offices are already preparing for the possibility that their playoff hopes may not last long. And there’s one major reason for this early reflection: Gavin McKenna and the top-heavy nature of the 2026 NHL Draft.
Viewed by scouts as a potential franchise cornerstone, McKenna is the projected first-overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. With his elite skating, playmaking instincts, and offensive production in the WHL at just 16 years old, many in the hockey world believe he could be even more complete than Connor Bedard at the same age. And with such a tantalizing reward on the horizon, some NHL teams appear poised to pull the plug on their seasons earlier than usual.
In previous years, the NHL trade deadline was the traditional turning point—when teams either doubled down for a playoff push or sold off veterans for futures. But NHL sources are hinting that this year, American Thanksgiving could serve as the new start to trade season.
Why? Because historically, 76.7% of teams in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving end up making the playoffs, according to Sportsnet’s five-season average. That stat has made the end of November a pressure point—and many teams are already bracing for what that might mean.
“Just wait,” said an NHL source.
Some Are Already in the Basement
The San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks don’t need to pivot—they're already in the mix.
San Jose finished last in 2024 and hasn’t made meaningful upgrades. While first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini is a centerpiece to build around, the rest of the roster is a patchwork of short-term contracts, placeholders, and depth players. No long-term goaltending solution. No veteran stabilizers. Just more patience. That’s by design. GM Mike Grier knows the team isn’t ready to compete, and adding another elite forward like McKenna to pair with Celebrini could be the fastest path back to relevance.
Chicago is in a slightly different place but following a similar timeline. After drafting Bedard in 2023, the Hawks have focused heavily on development rather than acceleration. They didn’t add scoring wingers or defensive stars this offseason—instead bringing back familiar veterans like Tyler Johnson and Foligno to support the locker room. On the ice, though, this team is still very much rebuilding. The expectation isn’t to make the playoffs. The goal is to gain experience and possibly land another top-five pick in the process.
Pittsburgh May Join Them—Soon
The Pittsburgh Penguins are headed toward a rebuild, with a significant push toward getting younger over the last six months. While Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin still anchor the roster for now, GM Kyle Dubas hasn’t made any moves to improve the roster in a tangible way this season.
Sources around the league suggest the Penguins are preparing for a pivot. Names like Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell have been in trade discussions, dating back to the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline, and all three aren’t expected to make it to the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline as Penguins. There’s no appetite for a full tear-down while Crosby is still on the roster, but that doesn’t mean they’ll stand pat.
“I expect the Penguins to do everything in their power to get into the top-3 of the 2026 Draft, “said a source close to the situation. “It’s Malkin’s last year, Crosby rumors swirling, and no immediate help to their roster. The writing is on the wall. The question is just: ‘Will they wait to the NHL Trade Deadline, or sell off early to try to beat out Chicago and San Jose to the bottom?’”
A League-Wide Shift: Thanksgiving as the New Trade Trigger
While the trade deadline remains the official checkpoint for major deals, there’s growing belief that Thanksgiving has become the real tipping point. That 76.7% stat looms large—teams outside the playoff picture by late November usually stay there. That’s led to a change in mindset: if you’re going to miss the cut anyway, why wait?
Sources across the NHL say that too many teams entered the offseason hoping to stay competitive, which hampered the trade market amid a rising salary cap.
Teams weren’t looking to lose any ground and demanded player-for-player trades instead of futures deals—a signal that parity kept everyone believing they were close. But when meaningful trades failed to materialize despite plenty of interest, many GMs have reportedly walked away from the summer disappointed in their rosters.
The belief is that if teams underperform early, the dam could break fast. Suddenly, players who weren’t previously available for futures-heavy returns could be moved as part of early soft resets. Teams won’t say they’re tanking—but if McKenna is within reach, they'll want to be in position.
Five Teams to Watch Closely
There are the usual suspects that finish low in the NHL standings, but then there are a handful of teams that are at a crossroads or not quite at the competitive level needed to keep pace in their respective divisions.
1. St. Louis Blues: The Quiet Retoolers
The Blues are toeing the line between competitiveness and change. GM Doug Armstrong has begun a quiet retool, and the team’s identity is still in flux. While younger players like Jake Neighbours and Logan Mailloux are taking on bigger roles, the veteran core remains—along with big contracts and trade rumors.
If the Blues stumble early, it wouldn’t be surprising to see names like Pavel Buchnevich, Brayden Schenn, or Jordan Kyrou resurface in trade discussions. The team isn’t desperate to blow it up, but a strong draft class could tip the scales in favor of a strategic regression, to then take two steps forward next season.
2. Nashville Predators: At a Crossroads
The Predators made a splash last summer by signing Steven Stamkos and Brady Skjei and adding them to a core that already includes Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, and Ryan O’Reilly. Unfortunately, it blew up in Barry Trotz’s face, as nothing seemed to jive for the veteran-heavy club en route to a bottom-3 finish.
With almost every veteran regressing in performance last season, Trotz must decide whether to chase one last playoff run or begin planning for what comes next.
If Nashville underwhelms in the early going, they could shift into seller mode surprisingly quickly. Many in league circles believe Trotz is prepared to pick a lane sooner rather than later.
“I know Barry wants to be competitive, but you have to be honest with your roster,” said an NHL source. “If they’re back in the basement again next summer, even after acquiring (Nick) Perbix and (Nick) Hague, then the defense was clearly not the problem.”
3. Philadelphia Flyers: Not Quite Ready
The Flyers are trying to stay competitive under new head coach Rick Tocchet, but they’re still not far enough along in their rebuild to hang with the Eastern Conference elite. Their forward group lacks depth down the middle, and while the team plays hard, the ceiling is clearly limited.
If they’re lagging in the standings come Thanksgiving, the Flyers could shift focus again—especially with players like Christian Dvorak, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Owen Tippett likely to draw interest.
The organization has made smart moves lately in the form of the Trevor Zegras acquisition and shrewd draft hauls; so adding another top-five pick in a strong class could fast-track the rebuild.
4. Vancouver Canucks: High Risk, High Drama
The Canucks always felt like their season could go either way last season, especially amidst the internal drama between Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller. Even after the Miller trade, the Canucks failed to recoup their season and make the playoffs, and their long-term outlook is even more dicey now that Canucks President, Jim Rutherford, identified the elephant in the room:
The long-term viability of their core hinges heavily on retaining and supporting stars like Quinn Hughes, and there have already been murmurs of discontent.
If Vancouver starts slow—and if Hughes gives any signs of frustration—things could spiral quickly. There is legitimate "blow-it-up" potential here. A collapse could lead to a dramatic pivot, especially if they see a chance to land a future face of the franchise in McKenna.
5. Calgary Flames: One Bad Break Away
Calgary is caught between eras.
They’ve got a talented but aging core—Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson, MacKenzie Weegar and Jonathan Huberdeau—but it was rookie goalie Dustin Wolf who saved them from being a bottom-10 team last season.
If Wolf avoids a sophomore slump, they may hover around playoff contention. But if he falters, this team could unravel quickly.
There’s growing belief internally that a youth movement is needed, as many of the core is over 30 and the names of Andersson and Kadri firmly in trade rumors circles.
If they struggle early, expect GM Craig Conroy to be proactive in selling off veterans for younger players, and aiming for the top of the 2026 draft could align with a longer-term plan.
“Conroy’s done a great job of drafting and re-tooling this roster on the fly, but they still lack that star player in their ranks to usher in the next era,” said a source close to the Flames. “There’s some star power at the top of this draft and I could see him tempted to add to his young core.”
The 2026 Effect
Gavin McKenna has never played an NHL game, but his impact is already being felt. Teams don’t just see a first-overall pick—they see a foundational piece. With that level of talent in the pipeline, franchises are reassessing where they stand and how quickly they can realistically contend.
But McKenna isn’t the only piece to keep an eye on. Keaton Verhoeff, a 6-foot-4 right-shot defensemen headed to the NCAA this season, is another name to keep an eye on. Some scouts are projecting him to be superior in overall potential to recent 1st overall pick, Matthew Schaefer, given his size, offensive acumen, and skating.
Then there’s Ivar Stenberg, who dominated Frölunda’s junior ranks in Sweden with 53 points in 27 games, earned an SHL call-up, and shined in the playoffs with six points in 12 games. A late-2007 born forward eligible for the 2026 Draft, he combines elite vision, creativity, and high-end offensive instincts that translated across junior, pro, and international levels.
You can add names like Ryan Roobroeck, Viggo Björck, Alexis Villeneuve, and Ethan Belchetz to the list as well.
As one scout put it, “If you’re stuck in the middle this year, that’s the worst place to be.”
The Bottom Could Get Crowded
The parity we saw this summer—the refusal to part with roster players for futures, the push for competitive trades—may give way to more honest self-assessments. Once the standings take shape, and the playoff picture narrows, the rush to the bottom could get crowded.
“I expect that all the trade activity that everyone projected — those ‘earth-shattering trades’ — are more likely to happen around then because there are still 29 teams that believe they can make the playoffs right now.” concluded another NHL source.
The trade market is set to heat up far earlier than usual. By the end of November, teams like St. Louis, Nashville, Philadelphia, Vancouver, and Calgary could join Pittsburgh, Chicago, and San Jose in shifting focus to the draft lottery.
For fans of those teams, it may be a tough few months. But for front offices, the message is clear: If you’re not going up, you’d better be falling fast—because Gavin McKenna might just be worth the plunge.
