2024 NFL Win Total Odds: Top Picks and Expert Projections for All 32 Teams

12 min read
Jul 26, 2024, 6:17 PM
Author
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief
Fact checked by:
Nick Ashbourne
Senior Writer
Last Updated: Sep 12, 2024, 1:45 PM

Understanding NFL Win Totals

NFL win totals, or season win totals, are a popular betting market where NFL sportsbooks set a projected number of wins for each team for the upcoming regular season. Bettors can wager on whether a team will win more (over) or fewer (under) games than the posted total. This guide explores NFL win total odds, providing expert projections and picks for all 32 teams in the 2024 NFL season.

NFL win totals odds are determined by evaluating various factors, including team performance in the previous regular season, roster changes, coaching staff adjustments, and schedule difficulty.

Example teams that had successful campaigns last season and retained their core players might receive higher win totals. Conversely, teams with losing seasons or significant roster upheavals might see lower projections.

When you look at a team's projected win total, it's essential to consider how many games they are expected to win based on these factors. For instance, if a team like the Kansas City Chiefs is projected at 11.5 wins, it reflects their strong performance last season and a robust roster under coach Andy Reid. On the other hand, a team with fewer expectations, like the Arizona Cardinals, might be projected at 5.5 wins due to a challenging schedule and recent performance issues.

Betting on NFL win totals involves analyzing these projections and deciding whether a team will exceed (over) or fall short (under) of their season win total. This betting market can be quite dynamic, with odds fluctuating based on preseason developments, player injuries, and other factors influencing team performance. Understanding NFL win totals odds can provide bettors with valuable insights and potentially profitable betting opportunities.

How to Read the NFL Season Win Totals Odds Market

Understanding how to read NFL win totals is crucial for making informed bets. Oddsmakers set win totals based on various factors, and the odds reflect the likelihood of a team achieving that number of wins.

  • Win Total: The number of wins a team is projected to achieve. For example, the Kansas City Chiefs might have a win total of 11.5.
  • Over/Under Odds: The odds associated with betting over or under the win total. For instance, the Chiefs’ over 11.5 wins might be at -110, meaning a $110 bet would win $100 if they win 12 or more games.

Factors Affecting NFL Win Totals

Several factors influence how sportsbooks set NFL win totals:

  • Team Performance from Last Season: Teams that performed well last season, like the Kansas City Chiefs or the Philadelphia Eagles, often have higher win totals.
  • Offseason Changes: Player trades, draft picks, and coaching changes can significantly impact a team's projected performance.
  • Injuries: Key player injuries, particularly to quarterbacks or critical offensive line members, can lower a team's win total.
  • Schedule Difficulty: Teams facing a tougher schedule, including more games against strong opponents, might have lower win totals.
  • Division Strength: Playing in a tough division, like the AFC North with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, can affect win projections.

Expert Projections and Picks

Experts analyze various metrics to project win totals for the 2024 NFL season. Here are some expert picks and projections for all 32 teams, with a focus on key franchises and their expected performances.

High Win Totals

  1. Kansas City Chiefs: Projected at 11.5 wins. Under the leadership of Andy Reid and with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs are expected to dominate the regular season again. Their strong roster and consistent high performance make the over a popular bet.
  2. Philadelphia Eagles: Projected at 10.5 wins. Leveraging a strong offense and solid defense, the Eagles are poised for another successful season, making them a favorable pick for over 10.5 wins.

Moderate Win Totals

  1. Dallas Cowboys: Projected at 9.5 wins. The Cowboys boast a balanced team with playoff aspirations. With a solid roster and strong coaching, they are a strong contender to exceed their projected win total.
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers: Projected at 8.5 wins. Known for their resilience under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are expected to be competitive in the AFC North. Despite some roster challenges, their consistent performance makes them a solid bet for over 8.5 wins.
  3. Cleveland Browns: Projected at 9.0 wins. The Browns have shown promise, but coaching changes and key player injuries could affect their overall performance. However, they remain a strong team within the AFC North.

Low Win Totals

  1. Arizona Cardinals: Projected at 5.5 wins. Facing a challenging season with significant roster changes, the Cardinals are in a rebuilding phase. Their tough schedule might keep them under 5.5 wins.
  2. Atlanta Falcons: Projected at 6.5 wins. The Falcons are looking to rebuild with young talent and face a tough schedule. Their projected win total reflects the challenges ahead.

Team-by-Team Analysis

Aerial shot over NFL stadium

AFC Teams

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Win Total: 11.5
  • Analysis: The Kansas City Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes and coached by Andy Reid, are expected to dominate the regular season. Their strong offensive line and consistent performance make the over a popular bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Win Total: 8.5
  • Analysis: With Mike Tomlin at the helm, the Pittsburgh Steelers are known for their resilience. Despite some roster challenges, they are projected to be competitive in the AFC North, making the over a solid pick.

Cleveland Browns

  • Win Total: 9.0
  • Analysis: The Browns have shown promise in recent seasons, but coaching changes and key player injuries could impact their performance. They remain a strong team within the AFC North, but their win total reflects potential uncertainties.

Denver Broncos

  • Win Total: 7.5
  • Analysis: With Russell Wilson leading the offense, the Denver Broncos have potential, but consistency remains a concern. Their performance this season will depend heavily on Wilson's form and the effectiveness of their offensive strategy.

NFC Teams

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Win Total: 10.5
  • Analysis: Coming off a strong season, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected to perform well again. Their robust offense and solid defense make the over a favorable bet for the regular season.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Win Total: 9.5
  • Analysis: The Dallas Cowboys have a balanced roster and strong potential for the postseason. With solid coaching and a strong lineup, they are a solid pick for over 9.5 wins.

Arizona Cardinals

  • Win Total: 5.5
  • Analysis: The Arizona Cardinals are in a rebuilding phase, facing a tough schedule. Significant roster changes and a challenging season might keep them under 5.5 wins.

Detroit Lions

  • Win Total: 7.0
  • Analysis: The Detroit Lions have made significant improvements and are projected to be competitive. Their enhanced roster gives them a good chance to surpass their win total.

Additional Teams to Watch

New England Patriots

  • Win Total: 8.0
  • Analysis: The New England Patriots, historically strong under Bill Belichick, are expected to have a competitive season. Their performance will depend on their ability to adapt to key roster changes.

New York Jets

  • Win Total: 8.0
  • Analysis: The New York Jets have been making strategic improvements to their roster. With potential breakout players and a solid coaching strategy, they might exceed expectations.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Win Total: 9.0
  • Analysis: The Buccaneers remain a strong contender in the NFC. Their experienced roster and solid coaching staff make them a team to watch.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Win Total: 10.0
  • Analysis: The 49ers are expected to have a strong season with their well-rounded team. Their performance in the regular season will be crucial for their playoff drive.

Green Bay Packers

  • Win Total: 9.0
  • Analysis: With a strong roster led by Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are expected to have a solid season. Their performance will be key in a competitive NFC North.

Betting Strategies for NFL Win Totals

Research and Analysis

Conduct thorough research on team performance, roster changes, and schedule difficulty. Understanding how these factors impact win totals is crucial for making informed bets.

Value Betting

Look for value in NFL odds. Sometimes the public's perception can skew the odds, providing opportunities for bettors to find value in less popular teams.

Hedging

Consider hedging your bets if you have multiple wagers on win totals. This can help minimize potential losses.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

  • Overreacting to Injuries: While injuries are important, overreacting to a single player’s injury can lead to poor betting decisions. Consider the team’s overall depth and ability to adapt.
  • Ignoring Strength of Schedule: A team’s schedule plays a significant role in their win totals. Ignoring this factor can result in misguided bets.
  • Betting with Bias: Avoid letting personal bias towards a favorite team influence your betting decisions. Base your wagers on objective analysis.

Staying Up-to-Date with NFL News

Keeping current with NFL news is essential for successful betting. Follow reputable sources for updates on team performance, injuries, and other factors that can affect win totals.

Remember
Staying informed with the latest NFL news helps you make better betting decisions.

Recommended Sources

  1. ESPN
  2. NFL Network

By regularly checking these sources, you can stay ahead of the curve and make informed bets on NFL win totals.

Conclusion

Betting on NFL win totals requires a deep understanding of the teams, their schedules, and various influencing factors. By following expert projections, conducting thorough research, and staying updated with NFL news, you can make more informed and strategic bets for the 2024 NFL season.

Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief

Sol has over 20 years of experience in writing for diverse industries including sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups. As the Editor-in-Chief at RG.org, Sol brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the role, focusing on delivering transparent, evidence-based content grounded in thorough research. Sol's mission is to empower readers to enjoy gambling responsibly and make informed decisions, enhancing their overall experience through insightful and engaging content. Under Sol's leadership, RG.org prioritizes the highest standards of integrity and reliability, ensuring that all information provided is accurate and trustworthy. Sol's dedication to transparency and research-based writing helps create a responsible gambling environment where readers can truly benefit from the content. This commitment to excellence has positioned RG.org as a leading source of information in the gambling industry.

Experience:

  • Over 20 years in writing and editing across multiple industries
  • Former head of regional innovation at BMO Finanacial Group
  • Senior Writer, Online Casino Reports
Interests:
NFL
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ATP
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Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Sol Fayerman-Hansen
Editor-in-Chief

Sol has over 20 years of experience in writing for diverse industries including sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups. As the Editor-in-Chief at RG.org, Sol brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the role, focusing on delivering transparent, evidence-based content grounded in thorough research. Sol's mission is to empower readers to enjoy gambling responsibly and make informed decisions, enhancing their overall experience through insightful and engaging content. Under Sol's leadership, RG.org prioritizes the highest standards of integrity and reliability, ensuring that all information provided is accurate and trustworthy. Sol's dedication to transparency and research-based writing helps create a responsible gambling environment where readers can truly benefit from the content. This commitment to excellence has positioned RG.org as a leading source of information in the gambling industry.

Experience:

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  • Former head of regional innovation at BMO Finanacial Group
  • Senior Writer, Online Casino Reports
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