Mastering the MLB Run Line: A Beginner’s Guide to Point Spread Betting and Run Lines

11 min read
Jul 8, 2024, 8:40 AM
Author
Nick Ashbourne
Nick Ashbourne
Senior Writer
Last Updated: Sep 12, 2024, 12:33 PM

What is the MLB Run Line?

The run line in baseball betting is one of the simplest forms of wager available. If you are betting on the run line it means that you are wagering on a favored team to cover a spread or an underdog to avoid losing by a specific margin.

In most cases, the MLB run line is set at 1.5. As a result, betting on the favorite is a wager on that team to win the game by two or more runs. A bet on the run line underdog is a wager on that team winning or losing by a single run.

Several factors go into determining what the run line is set at depending on the quality of the teams in the game, the starting pitchers and the daily lineups.

How MLB run lines work in relation to point spread betting

In sports betting for certain sports like basketball and football point spreads vary significantly from game to game with odds remaining similar for each team.

For example, the Dallas Cowboys may be favored by 14.5 points, but the odds on that bet would be similar to the +14.5 bet on their opponent. With betting on the run line the spread (-1.5) usually remains the same, but the odds differ.

Below is a sample pair of MLB run lines at FanDuel that show the variance in odds even as the 1.5 spread remains consistent:

FanDuel MLB

Run Line Betting Strategies

Betting on run lines is more complicated than wagering on pure wins and losses. Below are some things to consider before making any run-line bets.

Bet run lines as a moneyline alternative

There are plenty of ways to bet on an MLB game, and some bettors may prefer runline betting to picking who will win outright.

For example, if a bettor is particularly confident in a favorite's chances of performing well they might target them on the run line for a higher payout. Alternatively, a run line bet could be a more conservative way of backing an underdog that doesn't require that team to win.

There are positives and negatives associated with run line bets, but choosing them over moneyline bets or alternate lines can be a profitable MLB betting strategy.

Read teams’ run line records to inform your bets

While MLB teams' win-loss records are readily available by looking at the standings, you may have to dig a little deeper to find their run line records.

Even so, that's a worthwhile step to take in order to make an informed bet. Several sports betting websites provide this type of information, and it is helpful to know which teams tend to win by two and which ones are more likely to eke out a victory by only one run.

As an example, the 2020 Chicago White Sox had the best run-line record of the past five seasons (61.7%). Five teams had more wins than them during the pandemic-shortened season, but 85.7% of their wins came by two runs or more. That's the kind of information that can be helpful to know for MLB run line betting.

Shop around for the best run line odds

Because run lines are readily available on the MLB landing page of most major sportsbooks it is relatively easy to compare odds.

When looking for favorable odds one helpful strategy is to compare the implied probability of the bet you're interested in with the run-line record of the team that the wager is backing.

Advanced Run Line Betting Considerations

Baseball is complex, and betting on MLB games means considering numerous factors. 

If you're planning to place run line bets there is plenty to take into account before locking those wagers in.

Research and analysis before placing a bet

Several considerations should go into any MLB betting whether it's on the run line, money line, or various player props.

Baseball is an extremely statistically-dense sport and there are plenty of resources with MLB stats you can examine before placing a bet. The two most prominent websites for advanced statistical information on teams are FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, and those looking to dig even deeper could consider a Baseball Prospectus subscription.

For information specific to betting, many sportsbooks have articles or videos with picks and independent sports betting content websites with suggestions of their own.

Understanding run line movement and its impact on betting

Movement on run line odds in advance of a game can happen for a variety of reasons. One of the most common drivers of run line movement is last-minute changes to the lineup or probable pitchers, which you can find at MLB.com.

MLB probable pitchers

With the exception of superstars, the sudden absence or presence of a position player is rarely enough to significantly affect the odds because hitters rarely take more than four or five at-bats in a game. 

Starting pitchers have a more profound effect on individual games, though, as they are generally expected to face 20 or more hitters and pitch over half of a game (five innings or more).

Point Spread Betting in Baseball

Run line bets are baseball's version of point spread betting. The nature of the sport and its volatile day-to-day outcomes means that games never have a big favorite the way they do in the NFL, for instance, and 1.5 runs is the standard in all but the most extreme cases.

How MLB games are closer in score than you might think

For bettors who are new to baseball, it could be difficult to adjust to how close the games are, even between teams with very different talent levels.

Approximately 32.05% of MLB games are decided by a single run, or go to extra innings. That means there's a big difference between winning outright and doing so by two or more runs.

For example in 2023 the Cincinnati Reds led the majors with 34 wins by a single run. They only won 82 games overall, so 41.5% of their victories did not come by at least two runs.

Getting Started with Baseball Betting

There is plenty of information new baseball bettors should be aware of before diving in. Here a couple of things that may come in handy for those looking to take the plunge.

How to place a bet on the MLB run line

Run line betting is readily available on the MLB pages of most major sportsbooks

More often than not the run line odds appear in the leftmost column of the three MLB lines available on these pages: the run line, over/under, and money line.

Below is an example from DraftKings Sportsbook that should give you a sense of what to look for:

DraftKings MLB

Tips for successful baseball betting

If there was a silver bullet for MLB betting then bettors around the world would be getting rich wagering on baseball easily, which is not the case. It's important to understand the limitations of any baseball betting tips.

That said, here are a few basic principles that could be helpful to understand for the next time you bet on a baseball game.

It's important to pay attention to the starting pitchers for each team. One MLB team might be a juggernaut on most days, but throwing out the wrong pitcher could severely alter their chances.

Try to get a sense of which relief pitchers are available. Relievers tend to collectively pitch at least one-third of the game, although it's tough to predict who might come in there are resources like FanGraphs' Roster Resource that can at least let you know how often relievers have pitched recently. Most do not pitch if they've done so the last two days, or they've used 30+ pitches the previous day.

Make sure you're clear on the difference between the money line records and run line records. A team may have a good win-loss record but have a poor track record of winning by at least two runs.

Keep injury reports in mind and look up starting lineups. A baseball team can look very different in mid-August than it did in early May. Knowing precisely who's available for games is important.

MLB Run Line FAQ

What is the MLB Run Line?

What does betting on the run line mean in MLB?

Betting on the run line means wagering on a favored team to cover a spread or an underdog to avoid losing by a specific margin, usually set at 1.5. 

This means betting on the favorite to win by two or more runs or the underdog to win or lose by just one run.

How MLB run lines work in relation to point spread betting

How do MLB run lines differ from point spreads in other sports?

Unlike sports like basketball and football, where point spreads vary significantly, MLB run lines typically have a consistent spread of 1.5 runs, but the odds differ. 

For example, a favorite may need to win by two runs, with varying odds compared to the underdog.

Run Line Betting Strategies

What are some strategies for betting on MLB run lines?

Strategies include using run lines as a moneyline alternative for higher payouts on confident favorites or safer bets on underdogs. 

It's also useful to review teams' run line records to inform bets and shop around for the best odds across different sportsbooks.

Advanced Run Line Betting Considerations

What advanced factors should be considered when betting on run lines?

Considerations include statistical research on sites like FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, analyzing run line movements due to lineup changes or pitcher updates, and understanding the impact of starting and relief pitchers on game outcomes.

Getting Started with Baseball Betting

How can beginners start betting on the MLB run line?

Beginners should locate the run line bets on the MLB pages of major sportsbooks, usually in the leftmost column alongside over/under and money line bets. 

They should also pay attention to starting pitchers, relief pitchers, and injury reports to make informed bets.

<p>Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game back in 1998, and he's written about them professionally since 2014.</p><p>Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports, and his sports betting expertise has grown since its legalization in Ontario in 2022.&nbsp;</p><p>Between 2022 and 2023 he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets, and in 2024 he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the Responsible Gambler team.</p>
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Paruyr Shahbazyan began his business career in 2000 as a private entrepreneur. Over thirteen years, he developed a deep understanding for business and leadership, laying a solid foundation for his professional journey.

In 2013, Paruyr stepped into the sports and betting industry as the founder and president of Bookmaker Rating. This online mass media platform, which he led until 2020, focused on providing in-depth analysis and insights in sports betting, earning a reputation for its quality content. 

Continuing his innovative approach in 2022, Paruyr co-founded Azuro, a decentralized betting protocol. This venture showcases his dedication to integrating advanced technology in the evolving landscape of sports betting. Through these diverse experiences, Paruyr has continuously influenced and shaped the betting industry, driving new trends and setting high standards.

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Sol has over 20 years of experience in writing for diverse industries including sports, gambling, regulation, technology, and startups. As the Editor-in-Chief at RG, Sol brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the role, focusing on delivering transparent, evidence-based content grounded in thorough research. Sol's mission is to empower readers to enjoy gambling responsibly and make informed decisions, enhancing their overall experience through insightful and engaging content. Under Sol's leadership, RG prioritizes the highest standards of integrity and reliability, ensuring that all information provided is accurate and trustworthy. Sol's dedication to transparency and research-based writing helps create a responsible gambling environment where readers can truly benefit from the content. This commitment to excellence has positioned RG as a leading source of information in the gambling industry.

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Nick Ashbourne
Nick Ashbourne
Senior Writer

Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game back in 1998, and he's written about them professionally since 2014.

Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports, and his sports betting expertise has grown since its legalization in Ontario in 2022. 

Between 2022 and 2023 he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets, and in 2024 he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the Responsible Gambler team.

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