What is the MLB Run Line?
The run line in baseball betting is one of the simplest forms of wager available. If you are betting on the run line it means that you are wagering on a favored team to cover a spread or an underdog to avoid losing by a specific margin.
In most cases, the MLB run line is set at 1.5. As a result, betting on the favorite is a wager on that team to win the game by two or more runs. A bet on the run line underdog is a wager on that team winning or losing by a single run.
Several factors go into determining what the run line is set at depending on the quality of the teams in the game, the starting pitchers and the daily lineups.
How MLB run lines work in relation to point spread betting
In sports betting for certain sports like basketball and football point spreads vary significantly from game to game with odds remaining similar for each team.
For example, the Dallas Cowboys may be favored by 14.5 points, but the odds on that bet would be similar to the +14.5 bet on their opponent. With betting on the run line the spread (-1.5) usually remains the same, but the odds differ.
Below is a sample pair of MLB run lines at FanDuel that show the variance in odds even as the 1.5 spread remains consistent:
Run Line Betting Strategies
Betting on run lines is more complicated than wagering on pure wins and losses. Below are some things to consider before making any run-line bets.
Bet run lines as a moneyline alternative
There are plenty of ways to bet on an MLB game, and some bettors may prefer runline betting to picking who will win outright.
For example, if a bettor is particularly confident in a favorite's chances of performing well they might target them on the run line for a higher payout. Alternatively, a run line bet could be a more conservative way of backing an underdog that doesn't require that team to win.
There are positives and negatives associated with run line bets, but choosing them over moneyline bets or alternate lines can be a profitable MLB betting strategy.
Read teams’ run line records to inform your bets
While MLB teams' win-loss records are readily available by looking at the standings, you may have to dig a little deeper to find their run line records.
Even so, that's a worthwhile step to take in order to make an informed bet. Several sports betting websites provide this type of information, and it is helpful to know which teams tend to win by two and which ones are more likely to eke out a victory by only one run.
As an example, the 2020 Chicago White Sox had the best run-line record of the past five seasons (61.7%). Five teams had more wins than them during the pandemic-shortened season, but 85.7% of their wins came by two runs or more. That's the kind of information that can be helpful to know for MLB run line betting.
Shop around for the best run line odds
Because run lines are readily available on the MLB landing page of most major sportsbooks it is relatively easy to compare odds.
When looking for favorable odds one helpful strategy is to compare the implied probability of the bet you're interested in with the run-line record of the team that the wager is backing.
Nick has been fascinated with sports since he was first taken to a Toronto Maple Leafs game back in 1998, and he's written about them professionally since 2014.
Nick has covered baseball and hockey for outlets like The Athletic, Sportsnet, and Yahoo Sports, and his sports betting expertise has grown since its legalization in Ontario in 2022.
Between 2022 and 2023 he worked for a betting startup called NorthStar Bets, and in 2024 he contributed to Oddspedia before joining the Responsible Gambling team.
